The Role of Cultivated Land Expansion on the Impacts to Global Agricultural...

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英文文献：The Role of Cultivated Land Expansion on the Impacts to Global Agricultural Markets from Biofuels-耕地扩张对生物燃料对全球农业市场影响的作用
英文文献作者：Yang, Jun,Huang, Jikun,Msangi, Siwa,Rozelle, Scott,Weersink, Alfons
英文文献摘要：
The emergence of biofuels has led to an increase in crop price and subsequently global food prices but the extent of the impact is subject to debate. Fully understanding the role of biofuels on agricultural markets requires properly accounting for the response of all affected inputs and outputs. Previous studies have generally forced the amount of cultivated land, the largest input, to remain fixed regardless of price change. This study overcomes this limitation by setting alternative growth rates in farmland expansion within a general equilibrium model (GTAP-E) with a focus on agricultural and energy markets. The simulation of the model under alternative biofuel policies and market conditions reveals that a fuller utilization of available land resources significantly reduces the rise in feedstock prices brought about by biofuel policies and/or higher energy prices. Implicit land supply price elasticies calculated by the model are consistent with previous studies and lend support to the approach taken within the study.

生物燃料的出现导致了农作物价格的上涨，随后也导致了全球粮食价格的上涨，但其影响的程度还有待讨论。要充分理解生物燃料在农业市场上的作用，就必须适当考虑所有受影响的投入和产出的反应。以往的研究一般都强制耕地的数量保持不变，而不管价格的变化。耕地是投入最大的资源。本研究通过在一般均衡模型(GTAP-E)中设定耕地扩张的替代增长率，克服了这一限制，该模型关注农业和能源市场。该模型在替代生物燃料政策和市场条件下的模拟显示，充分利用可用土地资源显著降低了生物燃料政策和/或更高的能源价格带来的原料价格上涨。模型计算出的隐含土地供应价格弹性与之前的研究一致，并支持本研究采用的方法。

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