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Stock market's moonshot to record highs is all hype, Cornerstone's Worth says
Even as stocks hit record highs, one technical analyst says that the rally is not all it's cracked up to be.
By Friday's market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed a five-day streak of record highs, while the S&P 500 Index posted a four-day record of closing highs.
Many investors flocked to stocks during the rally, while big bank earnings and strong retail sales data drove stocks higher.
However,Corner stone Macro's Carter Worth says that equity performance has actually been rather disappointing.
"I think the issue here is that we know on an absolute basis, one has nothing to show for having been in the market now since May of a year ago," said Worth recently on CNBC's "Fast Money."
Investors can get bullish at highs, and bearish at lows, said Worth. That said, "nothing's happened ...in fact [for ]a very long time on a risk-adjusted basis," citing his chart work showing year-over-year change for key assets.
'Have to go meaningfully higher'
When weighed against other key indicators like Treasury bonds, gold and real estate—nearly all up in the double-digits—stocks are the worst-performing major asset class since last May, up less than one percent.
In looking at the S&P total return index, its trajectory falls below the S&P 30-year bond futures total return index.
"So the total return of just being in the bond market versus the stock market, no result, and yet again, all the volatility,if you adjust for the risk, it's not parity at all," Worth told CNBC.
And when adjusted for inflation, Worth said the S&P has still not taken out its March 2000 high, a record set during the tech bubble.
"We would have to go meaningfully higher," saidWorth, "to start to compensate for the risk that's been associated with owning equities not only for the last 18 months, but for quite some time."
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