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中国的汇率政策与区域货币合作，Chinese Exchange Rate Policy for the Regional Monetary Coordination，by Eiji Ogawa,发表于February 2, 2008，Abstract：The monetary authority of China had kept the fixed exchange rate system under which it fixed the Chinese yuan to the US dollar since 1994. The Chinese government made announcement of its change in exchange rate system from the dollar peg system into a managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a currency basket on July 21, 2005. If the monetary authority of China actually implemented the announcement of adopting the managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a currency basket, it would have good effects on not only Chinese domestic economy but also economies in other East Asian countries. Many propose that the Chinese monetary authority should mitigate its intervention in foreign exchange markets and, in turn, increases in money supply in order to stop current accelerating inflation in China. On one hand, the change in the Chinese exchange rate system would contribute to solution of the coordination failure in conducting exchange rate policy among the monetary authorities of East Asian countries especially in the situation where a value of the Chinese yuan has significant effects on other East Asian country economies under strong economic interdependence among them. My presentation is to investigate whether the monetary authority of China has implemented the announcements of exchanger rate system reform by the Chinese
government. Moreover, the exchange rate policy conducted by the Chinese monetary authority is compared with those conducted by the monetary authorities of other East Asian countries in order to consider necessity of regional monetary coordination among
East Asian countries. For the purposes, empirical analyses are made to investigate any changes in exchange rate policies conducted by the Chinese monetary authority around the announcement day and to investigate how much the monetary authorities of East Asian countries as well as the Chinese monetary authority to have placed their weights on each of the main currencies in their conducting exchange rate policies. The empirical analysis obtains a result that the monetary authority of China has kept targeting stabilization of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar in conducting exchange rate policy even after the Chinese government made announcement of the exchange rate system reform on July 21, 2005. The unchanged targeting stabilization of the Chinese yean against the US dollar is in contrast with the managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a currency basket that the monetary authorities of some East Asian countries adopt. Moreover, I focus on a role of China in the regional monetary coordination in East Asia by pointing out that Chinese exchange rate policy has a significant influence on the exchange rate policies of other East Asian countries. The Chinese exchange rate policy is very important in order that the monetary authorities of East Asian countries can solve the coordination failure in conducting exchange rate policy. Actual adoption of the managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a currency basket made by the Chinese government would contribute to the solution of coordination failure in exchange rate policies among East Asian countries. The Chinese monetary authority should implement the managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a currency basket that the Chinese government made announcements of. Lastly, it is suggested how the monetary authority of China should go beyond the current situation of the exchange rate system reform in the near future. At the first step, the monetary authorities should seriously consider how to implement the current managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a currency basket. At the next step, the monetary authority of China should be gradually shifting to a more flexible exchange rate system by widening the band and speeding up the revaluation of the Chinese yuan as well as making reference to a currency basket. Given that the monetary authority implement the announcement and adopts a more flexible exchange rate system in the near future, it should provide instruments of managing foreign exchange rates risk at the same time. It is necessary for the Chinese government to deregulate capital controls and foreign exchange controls in order that the private economic agents can manage the risks by themselves.
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