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THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET，Thomas Oberlechner，Copyright @ 2004 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 281页，英文
Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction xv
1 From Rational Decision-Makers to a Psychology of the Foreign
Exchange Market 1
Traditional vs. behavioral finance: A paradigmatic shift in
approaching financial markets 3
Economic defense of the efficient market view 7
Traders’ views of rationality in the foreign exchange market 10
Toward a market psychology 14
Abbreviated references 18
2 Psychology of Trading Decisions 21
Trading decisions: The view of traders 21
Excursion: Understanding decision-making in financial markets 27
From objective prices to psychological theories of decision-making 27
Normative–economic and descriptive–psychological approaches 30
Social herding dynamics 34
Herding and psychological conformity 34
Herding dynamics in the foreign exchange market 36
Affects 41
Status quo tendency 44
Overconfidence 47
Trading intuition: Bridging affects and cognitions 51Cognitions 55
Heuristics 57
Representativeness 58
Availability 63
Anchoring and adjustment 64
Hindsight bias 66
Abbreviated references 67
3 Risk-Taking in Trading Decisions 71
Asymmetric risk-taking 72
Framing and mental accounting 77
Managing trading risk: Institutional and personal strategies 83
Abbreviated references 87
4 Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market 89
Expectations: A market time machine 92
Fundamental and technical/chartist analysis 94
Psychological attitudes and market expectations 108
Social dynamics, meta-expectations, and the financial news
media 117
Abbreviated references 123
5 News and Rumors 125
Characteristics of important information 127
From news sources to information loops 131
Information sources of foreign exchange traders 131
Information sources of financial journalists 135
Implications for collective market information-processing 137
Reporting trends and interdependency 139
Market rumors 143
Abreviated references 148
6 Personality Psychology of Traders 149
The role of personality in trading 150
What makes successful traders? 153
Disciplined cooperation 154
Tackling decisions 156
Market meaning-making 157
Emotional stability 157
Information-processing 159Interested integrity 159
Autonomous organization 159
Information handling 160
Market applications 163
Abbreviated references 164
7 Surfing the Market on Metaphors 167
Main market metaphors 168
The foreign exchange market as a bazaar 171
The foreign exchange market as a machine 172
The foreign exchange market as a living being 173
The foreign exchange market as gambling 175
The foreign exchange market as sports 176
The foreign exchange market as war 177
The foreign exchange market as an ocean 178
Metaphors shape market perspectives 180
Market metaphors are about the psychological ‘‘other’’ 180
Market metaphors are about market predictability 183
Explicit and implicit metaphors of the foreign exchange market 185
Market metaphors in action 188
What we can learn from market metaphors 192
Abbreviated references 193
8 The Foreign Exchange Market—A Psychological Construct 195
The market as a construct and illusion 198
Market constructs change 200
Abbreviated references 204
9 The Basics 207
Function and scope of the market 207
Instruments 211
Trading 212
Dealing room structure 213
Market players 216
Commercial and investment banks 216
Central banks 217
Brokers 218
Investment companies, pension funds, and hedge funds 219
Corporations and multinational companies 220
Individuals 221
Global financial news agencies 222
Abbreviated references 222
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