[BNP Paribas] China Property (36 pages) Jun 2009

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Contents
2009 sales transactions will exceed 2007 ..................................................................... 3
Listed developers continue to gain market share 4
Good sales = low earnings risk & strong balance sheet 4
Good, sustainable sales 4
Lowering inventory: Digestion cycle now much shorter 6
Good sales, sizable C/F sales means low earnings risk 6
Even if sales slow, 2009 earnings are in the bag 8
Growth in sales by value now outstrips volume, ASP up 8
NBS figures confirm price stabilisation 10
Developers’ sales are a more timely reflection of price trends, and ASP is up 20+% from the
trough 10
Sizable landbank makes listed giants biggest beneficiaries 11
Valuation still way below peak in 2007 ........................................................................ 13
R&F now a BUY; still like Shimao, Sino-Ocean, CR Land 13
Revising ASP assumption but not being aggressive 14
Company updates ....................................................................................................... 17
Guangzhou R&F Properties 18
Shimao Property 21
China Resources Land 23
C C Land 25
Country Garden 27
Agile Property 29
China Overseas Land 31
Sino-Ocean Land 33

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关键词：property Paribas China pages HINA property Jun pages BNP Paribas