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Issuing Date: June 2009
178 Pages
Language:English
Issuer: Access Asia Ltd.
The Problems With Chinese Retail Data?
At the end of December, 2005, the Chinese government, through its National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS), announced that it had re-estimated the value of
the Chinese economy, in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), upwards
by just short of 17%. This re-estimate, according to the government, was due
to having previously underestimated the private service and retail economy
with the overall economy. Little in the way of further detail has been given
since this, with no indication of which parts of the service and retail economy,
and what this means for the total value (or sectoral value) of retail sales to
consumers in China.
The Chinese government claims that retail sales in China reached a value of
RMB10.85trn (US$1.59trn) in 2005. However, this figure includes retail sales,
wholesale trade, catering and “other” trade. Per capita, this works out as
RMB8,002.69 (US$1,173). This “total retail sales of consumer goods”
(TRSCG) is therefore NOT retail sales, but a broader measure of
consumption, including both wholesale and retail goods purchases, as well
as some service sectors.
The main measure of the retail market per se is another series called total
sales value of retail trade (TSVRT), which covers only retail enterprises with
at least 60 employees and annual revenues of at least RMB5m
(US$730,000). This scale limitation means that the very substantial
proportion of retail sales that visibly occurs in mom-and-pop stores is simply
not counted. This figure for retail outlets only in 2007 came to
RMB2,837.81bn (US$388.74bn). Per capita RMB2,093.34 (US$287). Quite a
difference to that above!
The reason that China observers have long held suspicions about the real
size of China’s consumer economy, is due to some inconsistencies in how
the data has been gathered and presented. For instance, national statistics
for retail sales still continue to quote figures for “large- and medium-sized”
enterprises only. Furthermore, retail sales (officially) include retail (under
which are included sales of vehicles and fuels – which are not classed as
retail sales in other economies), as well as wholesaling, catering and “other”
– which includes sales by manufacturers and other agencies. Also, the
“retail” market does not seem to tie in with what is reported as “household
consumption” within the China Statistical Yearbook (CSY), published by the
NBS.
Investigations into what is included under the “retail & wholesale” sector, and
if there is a value split between what is wholesale, and what is retail, have
been ongoing. Although total values for each are not expressed explicitly in
the CSY, the NBS does provide value splits by sectors within the total, for
both retail and wholesale. By adding each of these sectors for each year, we
found that in 2005, total wholesale value was RMB6,435.03bn, while actual
retail sales amounted to only RMB1,434.12bn in the same year. This process
is unreliable, and comes up with weak data, so we have not repeated it on
this basis, but base our own figure for total retail sales based on aggregated
data on individual sectors we research.
So, the true retail figure had to be somewhere between the two mentioned
above. Hence, we began to look at the situation in other countries in the
region. Based on this, and taking into account varying degrees of statistical
accuracy around the region, Access Asia and the China Economic Quarterly
found that retail sales across Asia comprise somewhere between 33% and
50% of overall consumption within GDP, with an average of 39%. We initially
took this as our guide, but have since come to the conclusion, based on the
aggregate of individual sectors within the retail market, that retail sales in
China should represent somewhere in the region of 43.5% of total consumer
spending.
figures, you get a retail market valued at RMB6,055.35bn (US$888bn).
Per capita, this works out as RMB4,466.78 (US$655).
This means the more realistic assessment of the total retail market
represents only just over half (55.8%) of the figure widely used to represent
the value of the retail market in China, the TRSCG, which we encountered at
the beginning of this section. So, if you are basing your business plan in
China on what the Chinese government tells you retail sales are, when the
retail market is actually half that value, then any business plan based on this
figure is considerably out.
This confusion of broader consumption being termed as “retail sales” runs
throughout data provided on markets in China, both at a macro and a micro
level. Data coming from trade associations and companies in China also
reflect this confusion in definitions. Therefore, when retail sales for certain
product sectors are given, this is often overall trade, including wholesale
trade to retailers and direct B2B sales to institutions.
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