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Wiley Credit Risk ScoreCards.pdf
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by Naeem Siddiqi
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Contents
chapter 1 Introduction
chapter 2 Scorecard Development: The People and the Process
Scorecard Development Roles
Scorecard Developer
Product or Portfolio Risk Manager/Credit
Scoring Manager
Product Manager(s)
Operational Manager(s)
Project Manager
IT/IS Managers 15
Enterprise Risk/Corporate Risk Management
Staff (Where Applicable) 15
Legal Staff 16
Intelligent Scorecard Development 16
Scorecard Development and Implementation
Process: Overview 17
chapter 3 Scorecard Development Process, Stage 1:
Preliminaries and Planning 21
Create Business Plan 21
Identify Organizational Objectives and Scorecard Role 21
Internal versus External Development and Scorecard Type 23
Create Project Plan 24
Identify Project Risks 25
Identify Project Team 25
Why “Scorecard” Format?
chapter 4 Scorecard Development Process, Stage 2:
Data Review and Project Parameters 29
Data Availability and Quality 29
Data Gathering for Definition of Project Parameters 30
Definition of Project Parameters 31
Exclusions 31
Performance and Sample Windows and “Bad” Definition 32
Effects of Seasonality 37
Definition of “Bad” 38
Confirming the “Bad” Definition 40
“Good” and “Indeterminate” 43
Segmentation 45
Experience-Based (Heuristic) Segmentation 47
Statistically-Based Segmentation 50
Comparing Improvement 53
Choosing Segments 55
Methodology 56
Review of Implementation Plan 57
chapter 5 Scorecard Development Process, Stage 3:
Development Database Creation 59
Development Sample Specification 59
Selection of Characteristics 60
Sampling 63
Development/Validation 63
Good/Bad/Reject 63
Development Data Collection and Construction 65
Random and Representative 65
Nonsegmented Dataset 65
Data Quirks 66
Adjusting for Prior Probabilities 66
Offset Method 68
Sampling Weights 69
chapter 6 Scorecard Development Process, Stage 4:
Scorecard Development 73
Explore Data 74
Missing Values and Outliers 74
Correlation 76
Initial Characteristic Analysis 77
Statistical Measures 79
Logical Trend 83
Business/Operational Considerations
Preliminary Scorecard 88
Risk Profile Concept 88
Logistic Regression 89
Designing a Scorecard 92
Reject Inference 98
Reasons for Reject Inference 99
Reject Inference Techniques 102
Verification 112
Final Scorecard Production 113
Scaling 113
Points Allocation 118
Choosing a Scorecard 119
Misclassification 120
Scorecard Strength 121
Validation 127
chapter 7 Scorecard Development Process, Stage 5:
Scorecard Management Reports 131
Gains Table 132
Characteristic Reports 133
chapter 8 Scorecard Development Process, Stage 6:
Scorecard Implementation 135
Preimplementation Validation 135
System Stability Report 136
Characteristic Analysis Report 139
What if the Scorecard Does Not Validate? 141
Strategy Development 142
General Considerations 142
Scoring Strategy 143
Setting Cutoffs 146
Strategy Development Communication 151
Risk-Adjusted Actions 154
Policy Rules 157
Overrides 158
chapter 9 Scorecard Development Process, Stage 7:
Postimplementation 161
Scorecard and Portfolio Monitoring Reports 161
Scorecard Management Reports 164
Portfolio Performance Reports 177
Review 187
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