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雷达卡
We raise our GDP growth forecast
􀂃 China’s economic performance in recent months confirms our earlier
predictions: growth would regain momentum when destocking (of highcost
inventories) is over, and high domestic demand (strong investment
and retail sales) turn to create real demand on industrial production.
􀂃 FAI growth accelerating (38.7% in May and 32.9% in 5M09) is
understandable as a trend (not necessary the growth rate itself) because
of huge new loans and government investment projects. IP growth surged
8.9% in May, suggesting the strong FAI growth and retail sales have
started to generate real demand for industrial production. Electricity
consumption should return to positive growth from June onwards.
􀂃 The current economic performance in China very much falls in line with
our bull-case forecast (‘Inside China’, December 2008). We were right to
stick to our 7.7% GDP growth forecast when the rest of the market was
bearish on China. Since the growth recovery has been even stronger than
our anticipation in 1H09, we now raise our GDP growth forecast to 8.2%
for 2009 and 9.5% (from 8.5%) for 2010 but temper our forecast for 2010
to 8.4% due to weakening of economic stimulus policies.
􀂃 With two prime macro objectives (reversing deflation expectation and
regaining growth momentum) achieved, the State Council’s conclusion on
17 June that the economy had regained steady growth should pave the
way for lending to cool down. More than RMB6.5t in new loans in 1H
(RMB5.84t in 5M09) have caused concerns about asset inflation and
NPLs rising.
􀂃 However, we expect a cooling down, not a halt to lending. Taking the
celebration of 60th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s
Republic of China into consideration, strict quantitative or quota control
would not be reemployed before 1 October. Thus, we believe new loans
will amount to RMB8.3t-9.5t in 2009, or an increase of 27-31% compared
to 2008.
BNPP Key Indicators
Contents
Themes......................................................................................................................... 6
A steady recovery 6
Lending to cool down 6
Growth forecast revised up.......................................................................................... 10
FAI accelerating, capacity adjustment delayed 11
Weaker external demand and China rebalancing 13
Consumption to weaken 14
Fiscal deteriorating 16
Defusing deflation and then reflation 16
Exit accommodation: Timing issue .............................................................................. 18
Overheated asset reflation 18
Balance sheet vs inflation risk 19
2Q04 lessons: Hard exit 20
Rising market rates signal of shift 21
Macroeconomic monitor .............................................................................................. 23
GDP growth 23
Industrial performance 24
Sources of growth 29
Money and inflation 34
Market performance and rates 37
Appendices .................................................................................................................. 41
1. 12-Month Major Economic Indicators 41
2. 12-Month Major Industrial Products 43
3. Industrial Profitability 44
4. Urban Fixed-Asset Investment Growth By Sector 45
5. Key Economic Forecasts 47
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