末日博士再次预言美国经济

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名的悲观先知经济学家鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubin)的研究公司RGE Global Monitor对美国经济发表了新预期。

以下是预期报告的摘要：

鲁比尼

美国经济陷入这场二战以来时间最长、程度最深的经济衰退已经有20个月了。虽然眼下这场衰退会被人频繁和适当地拿来与大萧条时期做比较（尤其是如果考虑工业产值收缩程度的话），但美国政府所采取的积极主动的政策举措已经显著降低了经济滑向萧条的可能性。……市场的普遍预期是，这场衰退将在2009年下半年的某个时候结束。……我们也预计，经济活动的收缩步伐会显著放缓。我们认为，2009年第二和第三季度美国的实际国内生产总值(GDP)会负增长，第四季度的GDP为零增长。继2009年经济活动急剧收缩之后，美国经济只有到2010年才会重新恢复增长，不过届时增长速度也将非常缓慢，显著低于潜力水平。

即便经济活动在2009年底停止收缩，这或许也不代表着衰退的正式结束。经济衰退并不是完全以GDP收缩来衡量的。美国国家经济研究局(NBER)在确定衰退时间时，要考虑失业率、工业产值、实际制造业活动、批发零售贸易业商品销售额、实际个人收入（个人收入减去转移支付额）等诸多因素……美国实际GDP将在2009年底停止收缩，但上述指标有可能要到2010年中才会触底（或是见顶，比如说失业率）。

实际经济活动的好转是切实可见的，这主要体现在失业人数的增幅放缓方面，反映在制造业活动指标的好转方面，体现在新屋开工数的企稳和财政状况的改善方面。不过，RGE Monitor并不认为经济的强劲可持续复苏迹象已经出现。

这里有个访谈 Bloomberg  约54分钟 （无字幕）
PS：教育网可能无法打开这个链接
         鲁比尼的英语听起来要费劲些

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vbkEUR2nRKBs.asf

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关键词：美国经济 末日博士 Bloomberg bloomber 2009年下半年 美国经济 鲁比尼

Now back to our U.S. preview.
The United States is in the 20th month of a recessionthat has been by far the longest and most severe of the post-warperiod.  While comparisons with the Great Depression are frequent andappropriate (especially if we look at the pace of contraction inindustrial production), the aggressiveness of policy measures hassignificantly reduced the probability of a near-depression.  Economicactivity fell off a cliff in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009, with two consecutivequarters of sharp contraction – by 6.3% and 5.5% respectively – in linewith our previous forecasts.  The general consensus is that thisrecession will end sometime in the second half of 2009.  While RGEMonitor expects more quarters of negative real GDP growth in 2009, wealso expect the pace of contraction of economic activity to slowsignificantly.  We forecast negative real GDP growth in Q2 2009 and Q32009, and for real GDP to remain flat in Q4.  After the sharpcontraction in economic activity in 2009, growth will reenter positiveterritory only in 2010, and then at a very sluggish rate, well belowpotential.

Even if economic activity stops contracting by the end of 2009, thatmight not mark the official end of this recession.  Recessions are notmeasured exclusively by GDP contractions.  Unemployment, industrial production, real manufacturing, wholesale retail trade sales and real personal income(less transfer) are all considered when it is time for the NationalBureau of Economic Research (NBER) to put dates around recessionperiods.  As reported by the NBER, this recession started in December2007, and all the above indicators peaked between November 2007 andJune 2008.  U.S. real GDP will stop contracting at the end of 2009, butit is likely that many of the above indicators will not bottom out (orpeak, in the case of unemployment) before mid-2010.

Improvements in real economic activity are present and visible inthe reduction of the pace of job losses, in the improvement inindicators of manufacturing activity, in the stabilization of housing startsand in the improvement of financial conditions.  However, RGE Monitordoes not yet see signs of a strong and sustainable recovery.

详细 请看
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/257243/rge_monitor__us_economic_outlook_q2_2009_update

thanks a lot

【哈佛笔记六十六】美国经济前景依然令人悲观的理由
http://www.caijing.com.cn/2009-07-14/110197164.html
这篇文章也能 印证 这一观点