THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS with a Technical Appendix
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan".
An Edge (Magazine) Original Essay, published in September 2008, 40 pages.
In the essay, Taleb continues his examination of Black Swans, the highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. He claims that the current subprime and financial crisis was partially caused by people using statistics either without understanding them, or in a self-serving manner, and offers his advice on how to identify where the danger zone is, and what to avoid and how to deal with it.