摩根大通：俄罗斯石油天然气行业研究报告2009年6月

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Table of Contents
Investment case........................................................................3
Gas sector: not out of the woods yet ............................................................................7
Mid-term outlook for the oil sector: a changing landscape........................................10
Quarterly financials....................................................................................................15
Financial estimates per boe of output ........................................................................17
Summary financials................................................................19
Valuation summary....................................................................................................21
Sensitivity analysis ................................................................22
Valuation tables......................................................................23
Company profiles ...................................................................24
Gazprom..................................................................................25
Expect better operating performance but negative newsflow in 2H09 ......................25
Novatek ...................................................................................32
Risks are up on new assets acquisition, change in shareholder structure...................32
Novatek's summary financials ...................................................................................35
Lukoil.......................................................................................36
Remaining sector leader in growth and profitability..................................................36
Lukoil: Summary of financials ..................................................................................38
Rosneft ....................................................................................39
Vankor is on track, debt re-financing complete .........................................................39
Rosneft: Summary of financials.................................................................................42
SurgutNG ................................................................................43
East Siberia oil should prop up output, hefty capex plans mire long-term outlook ...43
Surgutneftegaz: Summary of financials.....................................................................46
Gazprom Neft..........................................................................47
Active M&A player – is there any expected payoff?.................................................47
Gazprom Neft: Summary of financials ......................................................................50
Tatneft .....................................................................................51
New refinery construction is one of the main drivers ................................................51
Tatneft: Summary of financials..................................................................................54
Sibir Energy ............................................................................55
Upgrade to Neutral on strategic buying .....................................................................55
Sibir Energy: Summary of financials.........................................................................57
West Siberian Resources ......................................................58
Cost and financial position optimization show some positive results........................58
West Siberian Resources: Summary of Financials ....................................................60
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................61

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