摩根斯坦利：日本钢铁行业报告2009年6月

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Steel
Time to Get More Aggressive:
Upgrading to Attractive
What's Changed
Industry View: Steel In-Line to Attractive
PT: Nippon Steel ¥270 to ¥480
PT: SMI ¥150 to ¥280
PT: Kobe Steel ¥150 to ¥220
PT: JFE Holdings ¥2,900 to ¥5,100
Rating: Nippon Steel Equal-weight to Overweight
Upgrading to Attractive – Even without factoring for
economic recovery, significant upside from S/D
cycle bottoming; share prices to be formed by P/E:
Favorable factors include (1) receding risk of metal
spreads sharply shrinking due to progress in settling key
raw material prices and sales prices for major users, (2)
greater chance of utilization improvement in 2H F3/10,
even without demand recovery, due to inventory
adjustments, and (3) resultant share price formation
based on real earnings power after cycling through of
inventory corrections. We also see short-term positive
catalysts in bottoming of global steel prices and export
price hikes by Japanese blast furnace (BF) steel makers
in Jul-Sep. As uncertainties start to resolve, we think it is
time to shift to an aggressive investment stance.
Nippon Steel up to OW – Revising our forecasts,
PTs and ratings for BF firms: We assume earnings at
current levels of real demand (70-75% of the 1H F3/09
peak) will for now be seen as reflective of true profit
capability in the wake of inventory correction. The high
visibility of earnings improvement in 2H should enhance
the relative investment appeal of the BF firms within the
materials sector. P/E range following steel industry
realignment in 2003 was 7-15x, and we set PTs at 14x
(average in F3/04 when the economy bottomed out),
viewing bottoming of the economy as the time for stocks
to earn a premium for future profit improvement.
Our ranking is (1) JFE HD (2) Nippon Steel (both OW),
(3) Kobe Steel, and (4) SMI (both EW). In the event that
we cannot expect a V-shaped economic recovery, and
real demand stays at the current level, cost
competitiveness would be a primary focus for investors.
Key year for assessing growth strategies from a
mid-long term view: We continue to focus on the
longer-term growth story from expanded volume of
high-grade steel at BF majors, and the chance of further
industry realignment. But from now on, sales strategies
to extend customer bases will become more important

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