摩根斯坦利：中国煤炭行业研究报告2009年6月

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Contents
Domestic coal prices well supported........................................................................................................................... 3
Domestic coal market will remain balance until 2014...........................................................................................................................3
Supply will be constrained in the medium term...................................................................................................................................4
Key conclusion on Supply ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Shanxi is aggressively closing down unsafe mines................................................................................................................................................. 5
But consolidation is not happening as quickly......................................................................................................................................................... 6
Demand is still powering ahead ..........................................................................................................................................................7
Key risks to our Attractive view on the domestic coal sector ................................................................................................................7
Imports puts a cap on domestic coal prices ............................................................................................................................................................ 7
Restart of production from small mines................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Key Sector Charts .......................................................................................................................................................... 9
Regional Coal Valuation Comparison........................................................................................................................ 10
Company Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 12
China Shenhua Energy................................................................................................................................................ 13
Investment Case........................................................................................................................................................... 16
Growth is intact despite current environment ....................................................................................................................................16
The 400mt production target ................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Valuations – high but demanding ......................................................................................................................................................17
China Coal Energy Co., Ltd......................................................................................................................................... 19
Investment Case........................................................................................................................................................... 22
Flat earnings until 2011 because of limited volumes growth ..............................................................................................................22
Stock valuations are attractive but lacks catalyst ...............................................................................................................................23
Better capital management => better shareholders value ..................................................................................................................24
Yanzhou Coal................................................................................................................................................................ 26
Investment Case........................................................................................................................................................... 29
Net cash holdings but limited upside for shareholders.......................................................................................................................................... 30
Valuation is not cheap.......................................................................................................................................................................31

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关键词：行业研究报告 摩根斯坦利 中国煤炭 研究报告 摩根斯坦 中国 研究报告 行业 摩根斯坦利 煤炭

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