摩根斯坦利：中印消费行业研究报告2009年7月(免费)

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Key Conclusions
China has better growth potential in HPC than India
• India’s Home and Personal Care (HPC) segment has the potential to grow at 9.5% to 15.6% CAGR during the period C2008-13E, which is (-)232 to 379 bps
(below)/above its nominal GDP growth potential.
• China’s Home and Personal Care (HPC) segment has the potential to grow at 13.0% to 15.2% CAGR during the period C2008-13E, which is 499 to 275 bps
below/above its nominal GDP growth potential.
India, China to contribute 15% of world incremental growth in HPC segment
• India and China combined have the potential to contribute to around 10.0% of World HPC consumption by 2013, on our estimates. China and India currently
contribute to 7.4% of world HPC consumption. At present the US contributes around 16% to the World HPC market.
• India and China are likely to contribute 15% of the incremental growth in the World HPC market during C2008-13E.
Category growth skew is likely to be stark in India
• Categories such as skin care, deodorants, disposable paper products and color cosmetics are likely to see nearly double the average sector growth in India,
whereas categories such as bath and shower products and laundry care may witness growth significantly below nominal GDP growth.
• China has the potential to demonstrate balanced growth across product categories except in deodorants and color cosmetics where it could potentially post rapid
growth.
• Paper products markets -- Feminine Hygiene, diapers, etc. -- is around 37% of China’s HPC market, but it only contributed to around 3% of India’s. Including this
category, we estimate India & China Home and Personal Care (HPC) segment has the potential to grow at 17% and 15% CAGR during C2008-13E, respectively.
HUL in India
• HUL is clearly prioritizing its investments behind potentially high growth categories and using low growth categories as cash cows . We believe that HUL is
gearing up its brands and product portfolio to capitalize on this potential growth trend in India.
• China has three major players in the space listed – Hengan and Vinda

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