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Our 2017 outlook begins with a focus on six essential questions, intended to help investors develop new narratives to guide market views in a period that is likely to be very different from the post-crisis regime of 2009-2016.
1. Is the US really headed for effective stimulus?
2. Will lackluster global growth continue?
3. Is a breakdown in international cooperation (on trade, security, and regulation) likely?
4. Will we continue to see low, growth-insensitive inflation in developed markets?
5. How will the Trump administration choose a Fed chair and handle dollar policy?
6. Where will oil and commodity prices go next?
On markets, we expect a stronger dollar, higher US yields, structurally higher bond market volatility, higher oil prices, challenged returns for European credit, and sustained tension between positive and negative factors in emerging markets. In equity markets, we expect outperformance from Europe, Japan, and US small caps.
20170105 - Credit Suisse - 2017 Global Outlook：A New Narrative(Not a New Normal).pdf
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