发帖
雷达卡
Investment conclusion: We reiterate our Overweight
rating on China Foods and Changyu B shares, while
upgrading Changyu A from Underweight to Equalweight.
We raise our DCF-derived share price targets by
61-74% based on increased earnings growth forecasts
and a lower discount factor. Despite the run-up in the
prices of China Foods and Changyu B, the shares are
trading at respective 2010E P/Es of 17x and 18x – still
attractive valuations vs the food & beverage industry
2010E P/E of 23x, in our opinion, with further earnings
upside potential from a resumption in wine demand.
We increase our earnings estimates for Changyu,
which could be the first to leverage recovering wine
sales growth due to its solid leading position in the
high-end market and efficient channel management.
We foresee a longer term (2010-11) benefit to
volume leader China Foods’ wine sales, as it
continues its product upgrade efforts. Also factored into
our earnings revisions for China Foods is a stronger
turnaround in its edible oil/chocolate business and
higher beverage sales. Its exposure to soft drinks as
Coca Cola’s bottler should also help the company
capture the growth opportunity.
Our forecasts are conservative: Our 2009-10
forecasts are generally in line with consensus for
Changyu and 3-7% below consensus for China Foods.
We think there is still upside potential from potentially
stronger than forecast wine volume growth in 2H09.
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