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世界经济概览2009.pdf
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Assumptions and Conventions ix
Preface xi
Joint Foreword to World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report xii
Executive Summary xv
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1
How Did Things Get So Bad, So Fast? 2
Short-Term Prospects Are Precarious 9
Medium-Term Prospects beyond the Crisis 27
Policies to End the Crisis while Paving the Way to Sustained Recovery 32
Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects 44
Appendix 1.2. Fan Chart for Global Growth 55
Appendix 1.3. Assumptions behind the Downside Scenario 58
References 60
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 63
The United States Is Grappling with the Financial Core of the Crisis 63
Asia Is Struggling to Rebalance Growth from External to Domestic Sources 71
Europe Is Searching for a Coherent Policy Response 75
The CIS Economies Are Suffering a Triple Blow 84
Other Advanced Economies Are Dealing with Adverse Terms-of-Trade Shocks 86
Latin America and the Caribbean Face Growing Pressures 87
Middle Eastern Economies Are Buffering Global Shocks 91
Hard-Won Economic Gains in Africa Are Being Threatened 93
References 95
Chapter 3. From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong? 97
Business Cycles in the Advanced Economies 98
Does the Cause of a Downturn Affect the Shape of the Cycle? 106
Can Policies Play a Useful Countercyclical Role? 113
Lessons for the Current Recession and Prospects for Recovery 123
Appendix 3.1. Data Sources and Methodologies 126
References 130
Chapter 4. How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress
from Advanced to Emerging Economies 133
Measuring Financial Stress 136
Links between Advanced and Emerging Economies 141
The Transmission of Financial Stress: An Overall Analysis 147
Lessons from Previous Advanced Economy Banking Crises 155
Implications for the Current Crisis 157
Which Policies Can Help? 159
Appendix 4.1. A Financial Stress Index for Emerging Economies 160
Appendix 4.2. Financial Stress in Emerging Economies: Econometric Analysis 162
References 166
Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2009 171
Statistical Appendix 175
Assumptions 175
What’s New 180
Data and Conventions 180
Classifi cation of Countries 182
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic
Outlook Classifi cation 184
List of Tables
Output (Tables A1–A4) 189
Infl ation (Tables A5–A7) 197
Financial Policies (Table A8) 203
Foreign Trade (Table A9) 204
Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 206
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13–A15) 212
Flow of Funds (Table A16) 216
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17) 220
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 221
Boxes
1.1 Global Business Cycles 11
1.2 How Vulnerable Are Nonfi nancial Firms? 20
1.3 Assessing Defl ation Risks in the G3 Economies 24
1.4 Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis 34
1.5 Will Commodity Prices Rise Again when the Global Economy Recovers? 47
2.1 The Case of Vanishing Household Wealth 66
2.2 Vulnerabilities in Emerging Economies 79
3.1 How Similar Is the Current Crisis to the Great Depression? 99
3.2 Is Credit a Vital Ingredient for Recovery? Evidence from Industry-Level Data 115
4.1 Impact of Foreign Bank Ownership during Home-Grown Crises 158
A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 176
Tables
1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 10
1.2 Comparison of Commodity Price Volatility 46
1.3 Global Oil Demand and Production by Region 53
1.4 Underlying World Merchandise Trade Flows 59
1.5 Factors Explaining the Additional Decline in Output Growth for 2009–10 59
2.1 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment 65
2.2 Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 73
2.3 Advanced Economies: Current Account Positions 74
2.4 Selected Emerging European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance 78
2.5 Selected Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 86
2.6 Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance 90
2.7 Selected Middle Eastern Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance 92
2.8 Selected African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 94
3.1 Business Cycles in the Industrial Countries: Summary Statistics 105
3.2 Financial Crises and Associated Recessions 107
3.3 Impact of Policies on the Probability of Exiting a Recession 123
3.4 Impact of Policies on the Strength of Recoveries 124
3.5 Results from Categorizing Recessions 128
3.6 Financial Crises and Deregulation in the Mortgage Market 129
3.7 Impact of Policies on the Strength of Recoveries Using an Alternative Measure of
Fiscal Policy 130
4.1 Episodes of Widespread Financial Stress in Advanced Economies 138
4.2 The Role of Linkages as Determinants of Comovement 152
4.3 Emerging Economy Stress: Country-Specifi c Effects 153
4.4 Emerging Economy Stress: Determinants of Common Time Trend 163
4.5 Emerging Economy Stress: Country-Specifi c Effects and Interactions with Stress
in Advanced Economies 166
Figures
1.1 Global Indicators 1
1.2 Developments in Mature Credit Markets 2
1.3 Emerging Market Conditions 3
1.4 Current and Forward-Looking Indicators 4
1.5 Global Infl ation 5
1.6 External Developments 6
1.7 Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity in Selected Advanced Economies 7
1.8 Global Outlook 15
1.9 Potential Growth and the Output Gap 16
1.10 Risks to World GDP Growth 17
1.11 Housing Developments 18
1.12 Downside Scenario 27
1.13 Net Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Economies 29
1.14 General Government Fiscal Balances and Public Debt 30
1.15 Global Saving, Investment, and Current Accounts 31
1.16 Alternative Medium-Term Scenarios 33
1.17 Commodity and Petroleum Prices 45
1.18 World Oil Market Developments 52
1.19 Developments in Metal and Energy Markets 54
1.20 Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops 55
1.21 Dispersion of Forecasts and Selected Risk Factors 58
1.22 Balance of Risks Associated with Selected Risk Factors 60
2.1 United States: The Center of the Crisis 64
2.2 Advanced and Emerging Asia: Suffering from the Collapse of Global Trade 72
2.3 Europe: Developing a Common Response 76
2.4 Europe: Subdued Medium-Run Growth Prospects 77
2.5 Commonwealth of Independent States: Struggling with Capital Outfl ows 85
2.6 Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: Dealing with Terms-of-Trade Shocks 88
2.7 Latin America: Pressures Are Growing 89
2.8 Middle East: Coping with Lower Oil Prices 91
2.9 Africa: Hard-Won Gains at Risk 93
3.1 Business Cycle Peaks and Troughs 104
3.2 Business Cycles Have Moderated over Time 104
3.3 Temporal Evolution of Recessions by Shock 107
3.4 Average Statistics for Recessions and Recoveries 108
3.5 Expansions in the Run-Up to Recessions Associated with Financial Crises and
Other Shocks 109
3.6 House Price-to-Rental Ratios for Recessions Associated with Financial Crises and
Other Shocks 110
3.7 Household Saving Rate and Net Lending before and after Business Cycle Peaks 111
3.8 Recessions and Recoveries Associated with Financial Crises and Other Shocks 112
3.9 Highly Synchronized Recessions 113
3.10 Are Highly Synchronized Recessions Different? 114
3.11 Average Policy Response during a Recession 119
3.12 Impact of Policies during Financial Crisis Episodes 120
3.13 Effect of Policy Variables on the Strength of Recovery 121
3.14 Relationship between the Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Strength of Recovery and
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 122
3.15 Economic Indicators around Peaks of Current and Previous Recessions 125
4.1 Indicators of Financial Stress in Emerging Economies 134
4.2 Capital Flows to Emerging Economies 135
4.3 Sudden Stops and Activity 136
4.4 Financial Stress in Advanced Economies 137
4.5 Financial Stress Indices in Emerging Economies 141
4.6 Financial Stress in Emerging and Advanced Economies 142
4.7 The Transmission of Stress: Schematic Depiction of Effects 143
4.8 Financial Integration of Emerging and Developing Economies 144
4.9 Financial Exposures of Emerging to Advanced Economies 146
4.10 Financial Linkages between Advanced and Emerging Economies 147
4.11 Vulnerability Indicators by Region, 1990–2007 148
4.12 Comovement in Financial Stress between Emerging and Advanced Economies 150
4.13 Explaining Financial Stress in Emerging Economies 154
4.14 Impact of the Latin American Debt Crisis on Banking Liabilities 156
4.15 Impact of the Japanese Banking Crisis on Bank Lending 157
4.16 Exposure to Bank-Lending Liabilities and Twin Defi cits in Emerging
Economies, 2002–06 159
4.17 Emerging Economy Stress: Common Time Component and Stress
in Advanced Economies 162
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