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英文文献：Impacts of Multi-Fiber Arrangement Removal on Global Textile and Cotton Trade-去除多纤维排列对全球纺织品和棉花贸易的影响
英文文献作者：Xia, Doris Yan
英文文献摘要：
Textiles and apparel trade has been governed by the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) for three decades. Trade restrictions have generated substantial welfare losses and price wedges in exporting and importing countries through trade distortions. Beginning in 1995, textiles and apparel trade underwent fundamental changes. MFA quota will be removed by Jan 2005 according to World Trade Organization's Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). This study established an equilibrium displacement model to investigate the impact on textile and cotton sectors of different countries and country-groups of removing the MFA quota. The model specifies the basic linkages of textile and cotton markets in the United States, China and three other country-groups. With different parameter values for U.S. textile supply elasticity, assumptions about foreign cotton exporters' reaction and changes in the U.S. loan deficiency payment, alternative scenarios in the short run and long run are computed to predict changes in domestic and import demand for textiles and apparel, import demand for U.S. cotton, domestic and import price of textiles and apparel, U.S. cotton price and adjusted world cotton price. Generally, results indicated increased import demand for U.S. cotton, higher textiles/apparel export supply from China, decreased domestic demand for U.S. cotton, and lower U.S. domestic demand for textiles and apparel. However, both textile prices and cotton prices had positive or negative changes depending on different scenarios.
三十年来，纺织品和服装贸易一直受多纤维协定(MFA)的管理。贸易限制通过贸易扭曲在出口国和进口国造成了巨大的福利损失和价格楔子。从1995年开始，纺织品和服装贸易发生了根本性的变化。根据世界贸易组织的《纺织品及成衣协定》(ATC)，外交部配额将于2005年1月取消。本研究建立均衡置换模型，探讨取消MFA配额对不同国家和国家集团的纺织和棉花部门的影响。该模型详细说明了美国、中国和其他三个国家集团的纺织和棉花市场的基本联系。使用不同的参数值对美国纺织品供应弹性,假设外国棉花出口商的反应和变化在美国贷款差额补贴,替代方案在短期内和长期预测计算国内和进口的变化对纺织品和服装的需求,进口对美国棉花的需求,国内和进口纺织品和服装的价格,美国棉花价格和世界棉花价格调整。总体而言，结果显示美国棉花进口需求增加，中国纺织品/服装出口供应增加，美国棉花国内需求减少，美国纺织品和服装国内需求减少。然而，根据不同的情况，纺织品价格和棉花价格都有正或负的变化。
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