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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月俄罗斯金属与矿产行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：39
【目录或简介】：
Higher coking coal prices are already factored in by the market
As we move into 2Q10, we have made only minor adjustments to our base metal
and PGM forecasts but significant changes to our iron ore and coking coal
expectations. However, we believe that the market has already adjusted to the
higher level of coking coal prices, hence our neutral stance on Raspadskaya and
Mechel. Our top picks in the sector now comprise Magnitogorsk Steel and
Severstal.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Recommendation Change
Top picks
Magnitogorsk Steel (MAGNq.L),USD12.50 Buy
Severstal (CHMFq.L),USD14.40 Buy
Companies featured
Evraz Group (HK1q.L),USD41.50 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 7.58 -1.30 1.96
P/E (x) 9.4 – 21.2
EV/EBITA (x) 6.72 – 14.46
Severstal (CHMFq.L),USD14.40 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) -1.03 1.07 1.74
P/E (x) – 13.4 8.3
EV/EBITA (x) – 8.75 5.92
Magnitogorsk Steel (MAGNq.L),USD12.50 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 0.10 0.03 0.09
P/E (x) 9.7 35.0 10.4
EV/EBITA (x) 9.21 23.22 7.41
Mechel (MTL.N),USD28.75 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 2.74 -0.61 2.58
P/E (x) 11.1 – 11.1
EV/EBITA (x) 6.85 50.07 8.66
Novolipetsk Steel (NLMKq.L),USD34.80 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 3.80 0.38 2.60
P/E (x) 9.2 91.9 13.4
EV/EBITA (x) 5.01 20.30 9.93
Raspadskaya (RASP.RTS),USD7.05 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 0.68 0.11 0.71
P/E (x) 8.7 62.8 10.0
EV/EBITA (x) 6.43 34.44 7.30
Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.RTS),USD181.00 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) -2.41 8.53 15.31
P/E (x) – 21.2 11.8
EV/EBITA (x) 8.97 13.98 7.68
Global Markets Research Company
Raising our coking coal, iron ore and Russian steel price forecasts
We have increased our JFY10 forecast for premium hard coking coal (FOB
Australia) to USD200/tonne (+ 14% vs previous), in line with the recent price
settlements between BHP Billiton and the Japanese steelmakers. We have
adjusted our domestic coking coal price forecast accordingly and now expect
Russian semi-hard coking coal prices to average USD120/tonne in 2010 (+14% vs.
previous). We have also raised our Russian steel price forecast by USD10/tonne
(+2% vs. previous) for 2010 to reflect the recent price trends.
Looking for cheaper names
We believe that investors involved in the Russian steel sector have already
adjusted to the new level of raw material prices and they will be focusing on
relatively cheaper names. Our two top picks in the sector are Magnitogorsk Steel
(Buy, target price USD17) and Severstal (Buy, target price USD16.6) which trade at
16-30% discounts to the Russian peer group average on 2010-2011E EV/EBITDA.
We downgrade Evraz Group, Novolipetsk Steel and Raspadskaya to Hold on
valuation grounds. We reiterate our Hold ratings on Mechel and Norilsk Nickel.
Valuation and risks
We use a 50:50 weighted analysis of discounted cash flow valuation and target
EV/EBITDA multiple, which we apply to the coal and steel companies’ 2011E
EBITDA. For Norilsk Nickel we use three equally weighted methods: DCF, target
EV/EBITDA and the regression analysis based on a revenue-weighted index of the
company’s main metals. Downside risks to our Buy and Hold recommendations
for steel names include lower-than-expected steel demand resulting in lower steel
prices, stronger rouble appreciation and capex overruns. Upside risks to our Hold
recommendations include higher steel prices, stronger recovery in steel demand
and greater operating cost efficiency. (See pages 15-27 for more details.)
Table of Contents
Commodity review............................................................................ 3
Rising steel-making raw materials: who is benefiting? .............................................................6
Benefits of going up the value chain.........................................................................................7
Changes to financial forecasts ..................................................................................................8
Valuation snapshots and summary to target price and recommendation changes...................9
Recalibrating commodities............................................................. 28
Caution on industrial metals....................................................................................................28
Bulk commodities – fundamental shift in global pricing..........................................................32
Moving to quarterly pricing .....................................................................................................33
Coal powering ahead ..............................................................................................................35
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