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Cautious on China banks：A weaker credit impulse & fading reflation trade
The MSCI China banks index is now trading 1 standard deviation above its 5year average 1 year forward P/E multiple and a 5 year low implied cost ofequity（i.e.expensive vs where it has traded for the past 5 years）.We think therisk reward profile now looks poor given the rising risks to what we believehave been the core drivers of the re-rating（i.e.the China reflation trade）.Whilst we remain underweight the China banks in a regional context withinChina we have a clear preference for the retail-orientated banks（ICBC andCMB）over the more wholesale funded orientated bank（joint-stock banks andsome city commercial banks）.The latter，we believe，would be more sensitiveto the current rise in market rates as we laid out in our recent report March23rd“Chinese Banks–Financial deleveraging：Rising funding pressure”.
20170411-DEUTSCHE_BANK-CHINA_DEBT：TESTING_THE_＂IMPOSSIBLE_TRINITY＂-725627.pdf
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