World Economic Outlook, April 2017 Gaining Momentum

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IMF最新经济展望
Assumptions and Conventions x
Further Information and Data xi
Preface xii
Foreword xiii
Executive Summary xv
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1
Recent Developments and Prospects 1
The Forecast 13
Risks 22
Policy Priorities 29
Scenario Box 1. Permanent U.S. Fiscal Expansions 37
Box 1.1. Conflict, Growth, and Migration 40
Box 1.2. Tackling Measurement Challenges of Irish Economic Activity 43
Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on
the Role of Technology and Unconventional Sources in the Global Oil Market 52
References 63
Chapter 2. Roads Less Traveled: Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies in a Complicated External Environment 65
Introduction 65
Emerging Market and Developing Economy Growth Performance over Time 67
How Important Are External Conditions? 69
How Do External Conditions Influence the Occurrence of Growth Episodes? 76
The Role of Policies and Structural Attributes in Mediating the Impact of External Conditions 82
Taking Stock: What Does the Current Environment Imply for Growth Prospects in
Emerging Market and Developing Economies? 87
Conclusion 88
Box 2.1. Within-Country Trends in Income per Capita: The Cases of Brazil, Russia, India, China,
and South Africa 89
Box 2.2. Growing with Flows: Evidence from Industry-Level Data 91
Box 2.3. The Evolution of Emerging Market and Developing Economies’ Trade Integration
with China’s Final Demand 94
Box 2.4. Shifts in the Global Allocation of Capital: Implications for Emerging Market and
Developing Economies 97
Annex 2.1. Data 100
Annex 2.2. Channels through Which Emerging Market and Developing Economies Have
Narrowed Income Differentials with Advanced Economies 102
Annex 2.3. Estimation of the Impact of External Conditions on Emerging Market and
Developing Economy Growth 104
Annex 2.4. Identification of Growth Episodes 106
CONTENTS
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GAINING MOMENTUM?
iv International Monetary Fund | April 2017
Annex 2.5. Estimation of the Influence of External Conditions on the Likelihood of
Experiencing Persistent Accelerations and Reversals 109
Annex 2.6. Analysis of Domestic Attributes in Mediating the Impact of External Conditions 113
References 118
Chapter 3. Understanding the Downward Trend in Labor Income Shares 121
Introduction 121
Trends in the Labor Share of Income: Key Facts 126
Drivers of the Labor Share of Income: Key Concepts and Mechanisms 127
Analyzing Trends in the Labor Share of Income: Empirical Analysis 133
Summary and Policy Implications 140
Box 3.1. Technological Progress and Labor Shares: A Historical Overview 142
Box 3.2. The Elasticity of Substitution between Capital and Labor: Concept and Estimation 145
Box 3.3. Routine Tasks, Automation, and Economic Dislocation around the World 148
Box 3.4. Adjustments to the Labor Share of Income 152
Annex 3.1. Wages and Deflators 155
Annex 3.2. A Theoretical Model of Relative Cost of Capital, Offshoring, and Labor Shares
of Income in Advanced Economies and Emerging Market and Developing Economies 156
Annex 3.3. Country Coverage and Data 159
Annex 3.4. Methodology 161
Annex 3.5. Robustness and Additional Tables 162
References

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