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1 论文标题
Assessing the impact of terrorist‐thwarting policies: An intervention time series approach2 作者信息
Walter Enders，Todd Sandler，Jon Cauley
3 出处和链接（比如，NBER working paper No.11000）
《Defence Economics》, 1990, 2(2):1-18
4 摘要ABSTRACT This paper employs intervention or interrupted time series analysis to assess the effectiveness of four specific terrorist‐thwarting policies undertaken between January 5,1973 and April 15,1986. These policies include the following: (1) installation of metal detectors in airports, (2) enhanced security for U.S. embassies and personnel, (3) the legislation of the Reagan “get‐tough” laws on terrorism, and (4) the U.S. retaliatory strike against Libya. The use of intervention analysis allows for a study of the dynamic realization of a policy. Both short‐, medium‐, and long‐run effects can be ascertained. The most successful policy involved metal detectors. Expenditures to secure U.S. embassies had the intended effect, but it also had the unintended effect of putting non‐U.S. diplomats at somewhat greater risk. The Reagen get‐tough laws were ineffective. Unfortunately, the Libyan raid had the unintended effect of increasing U.S. and U.K. attacks temporarily.

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