标准谱尔：美国酒店业调查报告（2010年3月更新）

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT
Industry hopes for recovery in 2010 after “annus horribilis” in 2009
A year ago, when most economists thought the US would avoid a recession, we perceived a growing crisis
within the restaurant industry. We called it “A Perfect Storm” at the time. Our concern was prompted by
our observations of restaurant operators closing locations and dismissing employees. Others were cutting
back on expansion plans. We felt sure that these high-profile measures that public companies were taking
were likely being mirrored by thousands of independent and small operators as well. Our worst fear was
that these factors would give rise in 2009 to the most challenging operating environment ever faced by the
modern restaurant industry.
Now, with 2009 past the midway mark, our worst fear for the restaurant industry appears to have come true.
Although gasoline prices have plummeted and food commodity costs have retraced much of their 2008 rise,
this has done little to stoke consumer confidence or spending in the shadow of rising unemployment. The US
housing market may have bottomed, but with record high foreclosures in the first half of 2009, the bottom
may be wide and deep. Even as housing is showing tentative signs of life in some areas, such as parts of
California where prices have come down the most, other areas that had held up are now seeing declines.
Add to this the fact that credit remains tight for consumers and businesses alike. Joblessness seems certain to
rise further to above 10%, in our view, having already eclipsed economists’ earlier predictions of how high
unemployment would rise during the downturn. In addition, a growing number of workers are having their
hours, wages, or both, cut. Millions in both the private and public sectors have seen their jobs downgraded
to part-time from full-time. Several hundred thousand California state workers have started taking three
days off each month without pay, which is, in effect, a 14% pay cut. Underemployment is now a growing
problem for many.
While some measures of consumer sentiment brightened this past spring, consumer spending remains under
pressure. It’s difficult to determine if 2009’s federal stimulus package that provided modest tax cuts for
many wage earners has boosted spending on dining out. Just as likely, as with the tax rebates in the first
stimulus package, many individuals with concerns about job losses and shrunken nest eggs have increased
their savings instead.
While the recently passed federal stimulus package also contained funds to save state and local government
jobs and to maintain services such as Medicaid and education, a majority of states still have had to cut
headcounts in order to close gaping deficits in their budgets. The other major part of the stimulus package,
in the form of grants to finance a variety of public works projects, was always expected to contribute to the
economy over the longer term.
Amid this backdrop, most economists expect the economy to turn up in the second half of 2009. Even so,
the current recession is the longest since the Great Depression—longer than the 16-month downturns that
started in 1975 and 1982. Moreover, even if the US economy starts to grow again in the second half of this
year, the extent of any recovery remains far from certain, in our view. Standard & Poor’s expects gross
domestic product (GDP) growth, job creation, and consumer spending to remain below the long-term trend.
The Federal Reserve and the US Department of the Treasury have a delicate balancing act to perform: if
monetary and fiscal stimuli are wound down too slowly, inflation may ignite; if they are removed too fast,
the economy could slip again.
In the meantime, the recovery may be so weak that to many consumers, it will feel as if the recession never
ended. Moreover, pertinent to our discussion, restaurant sales may remain weak for an extended period. To
us, this recession clearly has been the most difficult period in the history of the modern restaurant industry.
Not only has it reshaped the industry, but it also is likely to remain an influence on the fundamental vigor
of the industry for years to come.

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏1 回帖

关键词：调查报告 酒店业 unemployment observations environment 美国 调查报告 酒店业

神经病阿分明是餐厅！写酒店！破东西这么贵还没有用