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R E S E A R C H C A P I T A L
Research Capital is an employee-owned, full service, integrated investment dealer. Approximately
300 people work at Research Capital, and operate out of offices in Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, and
Vancouver.
F U L L S E R V I C E
Research Capital provides its clients with top quality research, sales, and trading coverage, a highly efficient
distribution system for equity financing through its institutional and private client operations, and strong
investment banking capabilities.
I N N O VAT I O N A N D E X E C U T I O N
We can trace our roots back to 1921, and have eighty years of experience in all types of market environments.
Our focus is the development of long-term, mutually rewarding relationships with clients. Our greatest
strengths are innovative investment ideas that make money for our clients coupled with powerful execution
capability.
GROW T H COMPA N I E S
Research Capital is one of the leading specialists in growth investing, ranging from technology and aerospace
to natural resource companies. We provide distribution breadth and superior knowledge of the growth
company market to institutional investors, private clients, and corporations.
Research Capital is also a growth company, and understands entrepreneurs and their importance in
economic innovation and wealth creation. We are proud to have sponsored and managed financings for
many of North America's leading edge, growth companies. Our capital raising activities range across all
stages of a company's evolution, from private placements to IPOs to follow-on financings.
Timing a Natural Gas Turnaround is Tricky:
Strategies to Profit from an Extended Weakness in Natural Gas Prices
Towards the end of 2008, it became apparent that natural gas supply would exceed natural gas demand. Since then, natural gas
prices have plummeted to levels not seen since 2002 as rising inventories and production from prolific shale gas continue to flood
the market. For the last six to nine months, people have continually expected the reduction in capital expenditures to reduce
supply enough to rebalance the market.
While current natural gas prices are unsustainable because it is below full cycle replacement costs, we are going to put forward the
argument that the crowd calling for a recovery may continue calling for quite a bit longer. Our Fall Oil and Gas playbook (1)
examines the main factors that could lead to an extended weakness in natural gas; (2) provides an outlook on domestic oil and gas
activity we expect to see in the following months; (3) scrutinizes key factors in companies which we believe will be important given
the current commodity pricing environment; and (4) suggests strategies and companies that are not dependent on a quick
rebound of natural gas pricing.
Weak natural gas prices may persist for longer than most believe; however, longer term fundamentals are still solid: While
the theme of the analysis is relatively bearish, we would like to stress that we believe that the longer-term prospects of natural gas
are attractive. Barring a significant recovery in industrial demand, the reality is that there is simply too much supply if every
company was still on a growth mandate. There will be a period when some of the weaker players are consolidated or disappear,
but longer term, natural gas prices will recover to a level that makes sense on a full cycle exploration and development basis.
Crude oil to remain range bound: Over the most recent four months, crude oil has been range bound between US$55/bbl and
US$75/bbl. We expect prices to remain in this range due to a lack of visible catalysts to move the price sharply higher or lower. As
new production mostly comes from expensive sources such as oil sands and deep water exploration, a healthy price is required for
producers to continue to invest in the resource. In response to the current pricing environment, the number of active oil drilling
rigs has materially increased over the past month.
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