德意志银行：日本地产行业研究报告2009年9月

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Table of Contents
Valuation and target price .............................................................. 3
Upgrading ratings, target prices; shifting valuation benchmark to adjusted NAV based on
FY3/11 (FY10/12) forecasts ........................................................................................................ 3
Adjusted NAV (pre-tax) methodology......................................................................................... 7
Target prices in the real estate sector ........................................................................................ 8
Investment ratings, valuations and risks...................................... 10
Mitsui Fudosan: Buy rating, TP ¥2,100 .................................................................................... 10
Mitsubishi Estate: Buy rating, TP ¥2,100 ................................................................................. 10
Sumitomo R&D: Hold rating, TP ¥1,900 .................................................................................. 11
Tokyu Land: Hold rating, TP ¥480 ............................................................................................ 11
Tokyo Tatemono: Hold rating, target price ¥600...................................................................... 13
Earnings trend and share price outlook ....................................... 19
Owing to our forecast revisions, we expect earnings to recover moderately after bottoming
out in FY3/10 ............................................................................................................................ 19
Share price momentum............................................................................................................ 19
We think the present time marks the bottom for Big Three market weightings ..................... 20
Mitsubishi Estate our top pick.................................................................................................. 20
Fundamentals outlook .................................................................. 24
Rental office vacancies and new asking rentals ....................................................................... 24
Trends in cap rates and rates of change in expected rents ..................................................... 30
Real estate rental outlook......................................................................................................... 32
Earnings assumptions and revisions ............................................ 34
Assumptions underlying earnings estimates: we are leaving our assumptions unchanged
because negative factors have arisen earlier than we previously anticipated ......................... 34
Companies’ financial condition .................................................... 39
Mitsui Fudosan (8801).............................................................................................................. 39
Mitsubishi Estate (8802)........................................................................................................... 41
Sumitomo R&D (8830) ............................................................................................................. 43
Tokyu Land (8815) .................................................................................................................... 45
Tokyo Tatemono (8804)............................................................................................................ 47
Share price performance .............................................................. 49
Real estate sector monthly share price performance .............................................................. 49
Monthly share price performance of main stocks.................................................................... 50

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