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Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
1. 1H09 performance of Polish banks was strong ....................................................................3
2. Macroeconomic picture more favourable than anticipated...................................................3
3. After panic and recovery, we expect differentiation .............................................................3
4. 2009 and most likely early 2010 to be transition, and not the full recovery years.................3
Valuation ............................................................................................ 4
Gordon Growth model ..............................................................................................................4
PKO Bank Polski................................................................................. 7
Proven profitability through the cycle .......................................................................................7
Bank Pekao....................................................................................... 10
Risks are diminishing, but we see the stock as overpriced ....................................................10
Bank Zachodni WBK........................................................................ 13
“Cost-cutting” our way out of it?............................................................................................13
BRE Bank .......................................................................................... 16
Liquidity and capital stretched; we see only a limited earnings rebound................................16
Bank Millennium.............................................................................. 19
Valuation went too far north given the underlying risks ..........................................................19
Bank Handlowy................................................................................ 22
Fair valuation of NPL risks and balance sheet resilience.........................................................22
ING Bank Slaski ............................................................................... 25
Being countercyclical sometimes pays off..............................................................................25
Kredyt Bank...................................................................................... 28
Restructuring story .................................................................................................................28
Getin Holding................................................................................... 31
Poor underlying profitability driven by NIM squeeze and risk costs........................................31
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