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雷达卡
Table of Contents
Still value upside left................................................................3
UK bus still dominates the EBIT outlook – and assists de-leveraging ........................3
No more apparent ‘Bargain’ PERs...............................................................................5
Arriva looks the relative winner if an acquisition of National Express UK local bus
were to set a value precedent .......................................................................................6
Systemic upside: lifting PER ratings possible if ERP falls..........................................7
PT and company outlook updates ..........................................8
Arriva: 12-month PT stays 626p as our preferred income pick ...................................8
FirstGroup: N – 12 month PT lifted 8% to 426p from 396p........................................8
Go-Ahead: 12 month PT lifted 8% to 1433p (from 1333p) on a growing chance
Aviance’s losses are exited ..........................................................................................9
National Express – moving to a probability weighted 12-month PT which lifts our PT
+20% from 443p to 533p ...........................................................................................11
Stagecoach –OW PT lifted from to 186p (from 170p)...............................................12
Arriva .......................................................................................14
FirstGroup...............................................................................15
Go-Ahead ................................................................................16
National Express ....................................................................17
Stagecoach .............................................................................18
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................19
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