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雷达卡
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009 (World Economic and Social Survey. Supplement)
By United Nations
Publisher: United Nations
Number Of Pages: 159
Publication Date: 2009-01
ISBN-10 / ASIN: 9211091586
ISBN-13 / EAN: 9789211091588
Product Description:
"World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009" provides an overview of recent global economic performance and short-term prospects for the world economy and of some key global economic policy and development issues. One of its purposes is to serve as a point of reference for discussions on economic, social and related issues taking place in various United Nations entities in 2009. This full report includes regional overviews and detailed trends in global trade and finance.
Contents
Executive Summary................................................................................................................ iii
Contents........................................................................................ xv
Explanatory Notes.................................................................................... xix
I Global outlook............................................................................................... 1
The financial crisis and the prospects for the world economy................................................................. 1
The story of a crisis foretold...................................................................................................... 5
The deteriorating international economic environment for developing countries.......................... 12
Tightening and more costly external financing.......................................................................................... 12
Increased exchange-rate volatility and the risk of a dollar collapse...................................................... 14
Weakening world trade and commodity prices.......................................................................................... 17
A synchronized global downturn................................................................................. 18
Developed economies............................................................................................... 20
Economies in transition........................................................................... 20
Developing countries...................................................................................... 21
Macroeconomic policies to stimulate the global economy............................................................. 22
The need for reform of the international financial system............................................................... 27
Systemic failures............................................................................................... 27
The way forward............................................................................................................ 32
II International trade....................................................................................... 35
Trade flows.............................................................................. 35
Merchandise trade: growth deceleration and potential revenue falls.................................................. 35
Trade in services: growth to slow with global downturn.......................................................................... 41
World primary commodities and prices........................................................ 44
Non-oil commodities: dramatic price swings...................................................................... 44
Crude oil: the turnaround that was to be expected in a global slowdown....................................... 51
Terms of trade for developing countries and economies in transition............................................ 54
Trade policy developments: dealing with multilateral
negotiations in the midst of financial and food crises.......................................................................... 57
III Financing for development............................................................................................ 61
Net resource flows from poor to rich countries.............................................................................. 61
Private capital flows to developing countries.................................................... 62
Foreign direct investment............................................................................................ 68
International financial cooperation............................................................................ 71
Rehabilitating the global financial system....................................................................................... 78
Governance reform at the Bretton Woods institutions........................................................... 81
xvi World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009
IV Regional developments and outlook............................................................................................. 89
Developed market economies...................................................................................................................... 89
North America: How severe will the recession in the United States be?............................................ 89
Western Europe: Sharp deceleration with many countries now in recession.................................... 92
The new European Union member States: A divergent
growth pattern in 2008, a slowdown in 2009................................................................................... 96
Developed Asia and the Pacific : Japan’s economy
enters recession and will contract further in 2009.......................................................................... 99
Economies in transition......................................................................................................101
South-eastern Europe: Another year of good performance, though with activity likely to weaken.. 102
The Commonwealth of Independent States:
Despite some deceleration, growth remains impressive...................... 103
Developing economies............................................................................................. 108
Africa: The end of the commodity boom............................................. 109
East Asia: A continuation of deceleration...................................................... 114
South Asia: Expectations of a slowdown in robust growth.................................... 116
Western Asia: Resilience amidst deteriorating external conditions............................... 118
Latin America and the Caribbean: Significant slowdown in 2009............................ 123
Statistical annex
Annex tables.............................................................. 127
Boxes
I. 1 Key assumptions for the baseline forecast and the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios... 3
I. 2 Prospects for least developed countries................................................................................................. 7
I. 3 Don’t forget the food crisis................................................................................................................ 26
II. 1 The making of the food crisis........................................................................................................................... 47
IV. 1 The impact of the global financial turmoil on the banking
sector of the Commonwealth of Independent States...................................................................... 104
IV. 2 Africa’s response to the food crisis.......................................................................................... 111
IV. 3 The creation of a Gulf Cooperation Council monetary union.................................................... 120
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