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英文文献：U.S. Proposal for WTO Hong Kong Ministerial Conference: What's at Stake for Cotton Producers?-美国提议召开世贸组织香港部长级会议:棉花生产商面临什么风险?这项研究分析了两种政策选择给美国棉花生产商带来的成本，在这两种政策下，美国试图将棉花的AMS总支出削减60%
英文文献作者：Fadiga, Mohamadou L.,Mohanty, Samarendu,Pan, Suwen,Welch, Mark
英文文献摘要：
This study analyzed the cost to U.S. cotton producers of two policy alternatives under which the U.S. seeks to cut its total AMS payments for cotton by 60%. We considered two scenarios; the U.S. decides to act unilaterally versus conducting the policy initiative along with multilateral tariff and subsidy eliminations from the Rest of the World. The study found a 12% cut in target price and 8% cut in loan rate are necessary to reach the 60% AMS targeted reduction under the unilateral scenario. In that regards, U.S. net farm income decreases considerably despite an appreciation of U.S. farm price. Under a multilateral trade liberalization from the Rest of the World, a 9% cut in the loan rate and 4% in loan rate are enough to reach the AMS reduction threshold. The study found there is 20% chance that net farm income would appreciate and 80% chance that it would decline. However, the decline is less severe compared to the situation where the U.S. acts alone. Overall, the sole beneficiaries in both policies are mainly the major exporters such as Brazil, Australia, West Africa, and Uzbekistan.
我们考虑了两种情况;美国决定单方面采取行动，而不是在世界其他地区实施多边关税和补贴取消政策。研究发现，在单边方案下，要达到60%的AMS目标降幅，必须将目标价格下调12%，贷款利率下调8%。在这方面，尽管美国农产品价格上涨，美国农产品净收入仍大幅下降。在世界多边贸易自由化的背景下，9%的贷款利率下调和4%的贷款利率下调都足以达到降低AMS的门槛。研究发现，农业净收入增加的可能性为20%，减少的可能性为80%。不过，与美国单独行动相比，这种下降没有那么严重。总体而言，这两项政策的唯一受益者主要是主要出口国，如巴西、澳大利亚、西非和乌兹别克斯坦。
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