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Contents
Forecasts 3
Our CPO price assumptions are based on a detailed set of variables on yields,
mature hectarage and CPO production. El Niño will depress CPO productivity, in
our view.
3
Operating assumptions 3
Tight times for CPO 4
We expect exceptionally dry weather in South-East Asia to depress CPO
production. El Niño is a likely factor. We estimate the stock/usage ratio will close in
on 10% by FY10/11, driving CPO prices higher.
4
Valuation comment 13
At 17x FY09F, the sector valuations are not expensive on a PEG basis. In fact,
they are at a discount to prevailing PEG ratios in Malaysia and Indonesia. Indofood
Agri and London Sumatra have been the laggards of the sector. We think they
deserve attention.
13
Valuation analysis 13
Risk analysis 16
The risks to our case cannot be discounted. Production may collapse and palm oil
trading might be restricted if tariffs are reinstated.
16
Production at the company level might plummet 16
Rubber barons 18
KLK, IOI, Indofood, London Sumatra and Astra Agro generate a portion of their
revenue from rubber. Rubber provides another leg to the plantation story. We
expect rubber prices to rise to US$2600/t from US$1700/t at present.
18
All about El Niño 19
Here we discuss the history of El Niño and CPO. 19
What is the El Niño effect? 19
Company profiles 23
Indofood Agri Resources 24
London Sumatra 44
Astra Agro Lestari 51
Golden Agri-Resources 56
IOI Corporation 61
Kuala Lumpur Kepong 66
Sime Darby 71
Glossary 76
We provide the definitions of the basic terminology below. 76
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