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What the numbers are, what they mean, and the outlook going forward:
What’s new
Q2 real GDP growth stronger than expected, stabilizing at 6.9%y/y and
rising by 7-8%q/q saar. Resilient consumption and a positive net trade
contribution helped to offset softer real investment growth in Q2. Overall
momentum picked up in June as IP, retail sales & property sales all rebounded.
YTD strength of national property sales has been mostly underpinned
by lower-tier cities, thanks to a rapid pace of destocking and greater use of
"monetized subsidy schemes" in shanty-town renovations.
Financial Work Conference confirmed China's financial policy & reform
plans for the next 5 years, incorporating financial risk into "national risk"
and creating a new State Council Financial Stability & Development
Commission (FSDC) within the PBC to coordinate financial supervision and
bridge supervisory gaps. After reviewing past 5 years of rapid financial
innovation/liberalization, policymakers are now focused on the need to
adjust/slow the process to better contain and manage evolving financial risks.
What's next
Some upside risk to our 2017 GDP forecast of 6.7%. We still see a
flattish/modestly declining real GDP trajectory in H2, with property activity and
overall growth softening as credit decelerates further and policy tightening
progresses. However, the slowdown may be more gradual than previously
thought, as: 1) continued resilience of property sales & activity led by lower
tier cities means that the property sales slowdown may not be as severe; 2)
H1’s robust economic momentum means that any slowing of infrastructure
spending caused by tighter local financing rules should not jeopardize the
government’s growth target.
Supervisory tightening on shadow credit activities to continue, further
slowing credit growth in H2. But tightening momentum should be less intense
than H1, thanks to a more cohesive and better coordinated supervisory
framework under the FSDC. As such, although liquidity conditions will likely
be kept relatively tight, they should also be smoother going forwards. Expect
market rates to stay elevated but not trend up further from current levels.
We see the PBC taking a more prominent role in supervising
systemically important financial institutions alongside its other
monetary policy objectives. The new commission may also be involved in or
consulted with monetary policy decisions given the latter's implications for
financial stability.
瑞银-中国宏观经济展望-UBS China Economic Perspectives. China by the Numbers (Jul.pdf
(2.8 MB)
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