Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook – bullish on Brazilian steelmakers ................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Why Brazil is different ...............................................................................................................5
Brazilian flat steel market ..........................................................................................................7
Main sectors – Outlook ................................................................... 12
Construction sector outlook....................................................................................................12
Auto sector outlook.................................................................................................................14
Heavy equipment and pipes outlook.......................................................................................15
Steel prices .............................................................................................................................16
Usiminas (Usim5.SA)....................................................................... 20
Reiterate Buy: R$70 (USD39) 12-month price target ..............................................................20
Gerdau (GGB.N)............................................................................... 22
Upgrade to Buy: USD20 12-month price target ......................................................................22
CSN (Sid.N) ...................................................................................... 25
China cost model............................................................................. 27
Inventories ....................................................................................... 30
Brazil flat steel inventories ......................................................................................................30
Auto inventories in Brazil.........................................................................................................32
Inventories abroad ..................................................................................................................33
World cost curve.............................................................................. 35


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