德意志银行：中国宏观策略研究报告2009年10月

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Table of Contents
From Cyclicality to Sustainability .................................................... 3
Market rally driven by FAI recovery in 1H09 .............................................................................3
Export recovery dominates 2H09..............................................................................................4
2010: Switching from cyclical recovery to sustainable growth .................................................5
Nine “sustainable growth” stories .................................................. 8
Life insurance...........................................................................................................................8
Baby diapers – Hengan International.......................................................................................10
Packaging...............................................................................................................................13
Pharmaceutical distribution.....................................................................................................14
Medical equipment .................................................................................................................17
Juices.....................................................................................................................................19
On-line travel ...........................................................................................................................20
PC distribution........................................................................................................................22
Motorcycles ............................................................................................................................24
Investment implications ................................................................. 26
A “sustainable growth” basket...............................................................................................26
Why this basket?.....................................................................................................................27
Buy “sustainability”, Sell “deceleration” ................................................................................28
Update on overall market outlook and strategy ......................................................................30

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关键词：宏观策略研究 德意志银行 研究报告 宏观策略 策略研究 中国 研究报告 德意志银行

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