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China under Uncertainty:
Outlook, Counterfactual and Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation
—A Summary of Annual Report (2016–2017)
2 作者信息：
Kevin X. D. Huang
Vanderbilt University, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Guoqiang Tian
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Texas A&M University
Yibo Yang
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
3 出处：
Cite this article:
Kevin X. D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Yibo Yang. China under Uncertainty: Outlook, Counterfactual and Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of Annual Report (2016–2017)[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2017, 12(2): 167-187.
链接：
| http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-006-017-0008-8 http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2017/V12/I2/167 |
4 摘要
伴随着不确定性升级，中国宏观经济在2017年将承受持续的下行压力。复杂的国际政治环境、美国的逆全球化趋势、以及美联储加息，构成了中国经济面临的主要外部挑战。其中，美联储加息可能触发中美贸易战，加剧人民币贬值和资本外逃的风险。另一方面，由房地产部门过度金融化、房地产泡沫持续膨胀和债务水平不断攀升所带来的风险积累，以及经济整体持续性的脱实向虚、资源配置重ZF轻市场等更深层次问题，则构成了中国经济面临的主要内部挑战。兼顾周期性和非周期性因素，本报告基于量化准结构宏观预测（IAR-CMM）模型，预测在基准情景下，2017年全年实际GDP增速约为6.50%，而经校正后的GDP增速约为6.13%。报告还通过情境分析和政策模拟，突出了错综复杂的各种不确定性给经济走势带来的影响。分析显示，体制改革和治理改革滞后造成的经济结构长期扭曲，是制约中国经济未来发展的一项根源。其不仅损害了中国的增长潜力，而且还限制了近年来刺激政策的效果、并放大了这些政策的负作用。面对不利的人口结构变化趋势，兼顾短期增长和长期发展的市场化改革，是经济结构实现成功调整的关键，是中国向现代市场经济和法治国家转型过程中的重中之重。
China under Uncertainty:
Outlook, Counterfactual and Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation
—A Summary of Annual Report (2016–2017)
Kevin X. D. Huang
Vanderbilt University, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Guoqiang Tian
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Texas A&M University
Yibo Yang
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Abstract:
China’s macroeconomy is surrounded by increased uncertainties while facing persistent downward pressures entering year 2017. Major external challenges are imposed by the chaotic political climate and disorderly retreat from globalization of the US accompanied with the impending FED rate hikes, which may trigger a destructive trade war and exert pressures on RMB depreciation and capital flight. Remaining ingrained in major internal challenges are the gridlock risks accumulated from excessive financialization of real estate sector and swelling housing market bubbles amid escalating debt levels, and more fundamentally, the continued off-real-to-virtual movement in the general economy and ascendancy of government over market in resource allocation. Based on IAR-CMM model, which takes into account both cyclical and secular factors, the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.5% in 2017 (6.13% using more reliable instead of official data). Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are also conducted to highlight the convoluted uncertainties surrounding China’s macroeconomy. Through the lens of these analyses, we identify a root cause of the weak outlook as the persistently distorted economic structure due to procrastination in reforms of the institutions and governance, which not only impairs China’s growth potential but also limits the power of its recent stimulating policies while exacerbating their side effects. Key to successful economic restructuring in the face of adversely evolving demographics are market-oriented reforms, with well-designed strategies to balance short-term stabilization and long-run development. Such reforms should hold center stage in China’s transition towards a modern free market economy and regulatory state.
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