摩根斯坦利：亚太金属与矿产行业研究报告2009年10月

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Nonferrous Metals &
Mining
Higher Price Forecasts Lift
EPS; Little Change to PT Due
to Prior Update
Commodity price revision: Our global team today
published its quarterly commodity playbook, which we
use to make changes to our nonferrous metals pricing
forecast. See Morgan Stanley Global Metals Playbook –
4Q09: A Strengthening Cycle, for details.
We expect the broad and strong gains in base metals in
2009 will be sustained into 2010 and beyond, led by
copper, for which we have increased our price forecast
in 2010-11e by ~20% to $2.98/lb and $3.18/lb,
respectively. We remain cautious on the outlook of
aluminum and zinc despite upward revisions to our
near-term forecasts to reflect recent price movements.
We expect both markets to remain in surplus up to 2012.
Based on our higher commodity price forecasts, we
have raised our 2009-10e EPS estimates for most of our
covered stocks, with the biggest increase in Chalco,
Hunan Nonferrous, and JZWF. Our PTs are unchanged
for most of the nonferrous names, as we had previously
incorporated the prior bull-case metal prices (Cu & Mo)
or partial bull-case prices (Al & Zn) into our PTs (see
Aug 5 reports on JXC and China Moly, Aug 19 report on
Chalco, and Aug 24 report on HNC). Our ratings are for
most of our companies, except Antam, which we
downgrade to EW as the stock looks fully valued, as
most of the positives are priced in (see Aneka Tambang:
Positives Mostly Discounted: Downgrade to EW
published today). Our preferred stock in the sector is
China Zhongwang, with a 62% potential upside and no
exposure to aluminum prices. We also like Korea Zinc,
not for the raised zinc price assumption, but for its
continued by-product contribution. Our least favored
stocks are JZWF and Hunan Nonferrous, with exposure
to the unexciting zinc and aluminum and have the
biggest downside to our PTs.

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