有几个有效市场的问题看不懂求解释...

没有看懂这题到底问了什么，答案解释也没看懂， 有没有大神通俗的讲解以下？
Given the following situations, determine in each case whether or not the semi-strong EMH is contradicted.

(a)        Through the introduction of a complex computer programme into the analysis of past stock price changes, a brokerage firm is able to predict price movements well enough to earn a consistent 3% profit, adjusted for risk, above normal market returns.

(b)        On the average, investors in the stock market this year are expected to earn a positive return (profit) on their investment.  Some investors will earn considerably more than others.

c) You have discovered that the square root of any given stock price multiplied by the day of the month provides an indication of the direction in price movement of that particular stock with a probability of 0.7.

d) A Securities and Exchange Commission suit was filed against Texas Gulf Sulphur Company in 1965 because its corporate employees had made unusually high profits on company stock that they had purchased after exploratory drilling had started in Ontario (in 1959) and before stock prices rose dramatically (in 1964) with the announcement of the discovery of large mineral deposits in Ontario.

以下为解释...没有看懂
(a) There does appear to be a technical inefficiency here. However, the information which enables the firm to earn consistent abnormal profits is not costless. If the computer costs are > 3% of profits then the firm is actually earning < normal returns. If the costs are < 3% then weak-form efficiency is violated and therefore so is semi-strong form efficiency.

(b) No contradiction. Positive returns are not contrary to EMH. The time value of money tells us that investors must be rewarded on average for forgoing current consumption. In addition, some investors earning more than others does not contradict EMH - investors can earn above average returns because they are lucky (they happen to be holding shares when good news comes along) or because they invest in riskier investments (securities with higher systematic risk should offer, on average, higher returns).


(c) The answer here is very similar to (a) above, except that the costs appear to be much lower. In which case it appears that weak and semi-strong form efficiency are violated.

(d) No contradiction of semi-strong form efficiency, but it does appear that strong form efficiency is violated (trading on inside information).

(a)、(c)投资者获得信息、处理信息的成本如果低于收益，那么就能获利，运用的也是历史信息、基本面信息，就会违反EMH；如果成本高于收益，说明不赚钱，就不违反。（b）不违反，这里的获利值得是风险调整后期望回报（alpha）(d)只违反强EMH，不违反半强EMH

弱有效--根据历史信息不能获利（收益-成本），如股价、交易量；半强--根据公司基本面，如财报信息+历史信息不能获益；强--根据历史信息+财报信息+内幕消息不能获益。条件是逐渐增强的。

这个题目就是看只历史信息+基本面信息，投资者能不能赚到钱。能就违反EMH。

deem 发表于 2017-8-23 09:14
弱有效--根据历史信息不能获利（收益-成本），如股价、交易量；半强--根据公司基本面，如财报信息+历史信息 ...

感谢大神，能帮忙看下这道题么

McGilvray’s Foods currently pays no dividends. You overhear the CEO tell the finance director that the plan is to begin paying dividends in 3 years. The first dividend will be ￡1 and dividends are expected to grow at 5% thereafter. Given a required return of 15% what would you pay for the stock today?

a. 7.1

b. 7.56

c. 8.29

d. 10

e. 4.3

答案为B，我算的是D.不知道哪里错了

shangwuqiwen 发表于 2017-8-24 07:28
感谢大神，能帮忙看下这道题么McGilvray’s Foods currently pays no dividends. You overhear the CEO t ...

题目意思是3年后开始支付股利，所以你的结果再／1.15^2即可

deem 发表于 2017-8-24 09:24
题目意思是3年后开始支付股利，所以你的结果再／1.15^2即可

哦，没注意这个，谢谢！