摩根斯坦利：英国证券市场投资文摘2009年10月(免费)

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HIGHLIGHTS
UK macro watchers have plenty to occupy themselves with
at present as they consider the 3Q GDP weakness, the
future path of QE, forthcoming changes to fiscal policy and
the downward pressure on GBP. We believe the UK macro
outlook will remain highly uncertain for some time and see
little scope for rate hikes until the latter stages of next year.
We are not particularly concerned by this latest bout of
equity weakness, as it may actually be helpful in delaying
the onset of the tightening phase, and we continue to
recommend our reliable growth and commodity themes.
Ephrem Ravi has upgraded Anglo American to Overweight
as he believes the stock has one of the best near-term
organic growth pipelines in copper and iron ore and his
sum-of-the-parts analysis implies that Amplats is now
effectively in the price for free.
Graham Secker (+44 20 7425 6188) UK Strategist
Strategy and Economics
UK
3 UK Strategy A Sorry State
Graham Secker
5 UK Economics UK Still in Recession
Melanie Baker, Cath Sleeman
Global
7 Europe Strategy
Tightening Checklist
Teun Draaisma
11 Global Equity Strategy Wheeling the Grease
Gerard Minack, Jason Todd
13 Europe Credit Strategy
The Other Side of Bank Deleveraging
Andrew Sheets, Carlos Egea
17 US Economics Fedspeak: Roadmap for the
Exit
Richard Berner, David Greenlaw
19 US Credit Strategy Rate Relief
Rizwan Hussain, Gregory Peters, Adam Richmond
21 Currency Strategy Look Who’s Talking
Sophia Drossos
Industry & Company Analysis
23 Initiation Insurance Initiation on Lloyd’s of
London Insurers – OW Amlin, UW Brit
Adrienne Lim, Andrew Broadfield

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