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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国电子商务行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：104
【目录或简介】：
e-commerce is becoming important for China’s retail market. We expect
China’s e-commerce market size, in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV),
to grow to Rmb243 bn (US$35.6 bn) in 2009, up 89% YoY. We expect the size
of this market (as a percentage of China’s retail sales) to increase from 1.2% in
2008 to 4.2% in 2012, compared with 5.1% in the US in 2007.
􀀀
􀀀 Taobao – the dominant e-commerce player. Taobao (not listed) is the
dominant e-commerce player due to: (1) its high user loyalty, (2) high transaction
value with a dominant market share (78% in 2008), and (3) high traffic volumes.
􀀀
􀀀 Tencent – the best e-commerce play. As Taobao is not listed, we believe
Tencent is the best play in the fast growing China e-commerce market.
Tencent’s e-commerce businesses, Paipai and Tenpay, are gaining market
share. We estimate Paipai and Tenpay’s valuation at US$8.3 bn, equivalent to
22% of our DCF valuation for Tencent. We believe the market has not fully
factored in the valuation of both businesses. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM
rating for Tencent with a target price of HK$166.70.
􀀀
􀀀 Baidu – facing competition from Taobao. Although it is the largest search
engine in China, Baidu cannot provide traffic to 78% of the e-commerce market
in China, as Taobao has blocked Baidu’s search crawling software since 3Q08.
Also, our proprietary survey shows that ‘long tail’ online merchants prefer
Taobao to Baidu. Given Taobao’s competition, we expect Baidu’s paid search
market share to fall from 58% in 2008 to 36% in 2012. We reiterate our
UNDERPERFORM rating on Baidu with a target price of US$263.3.
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