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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月全球证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：法国兴业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：362
【目录或简介】：
Overview – Emerging markets attraction; the consumption factor
We believe economic growth will be above average, and thus being present and expanding in
the developing economies is essential for any company, and particularly for those based in
“old and mature” zones. This is truer than ever in the current period, as despite the severity of
the economic crisis, China, India, and Indonesia are still registering impressive growth. For
instance, China’s GDP rose by 8.9% in Q3 of this year! We anticipate that, after the capex
wave, we shall see a consumption phase over the next five years.
Emerging markets for European companies: one-third of revenues and EBIT
by 2015 (SGe)
The SG analysis of 150 European companies demonstrates the growing role played by
emerging markets (EMs). We estimate that, on average, they should contribute around onethird
of European companies’ revenues and EBIT in 3-5 years’ time. In particular, from 2% on
average in 2002, China is expected to contribute 5% of total revenues in 3-5 years. Lastly,
under our sum-of-the-parts valuations by region, EMs account for around almost one-third of
total value today, a direct consequence of investments and exposure in these countries, and
EMs rising contribution to group growth rates. We calculate that the EM contribution to group
growth (revenues and EBIT) should reach more than 50% over the next 3-5 years.
SG European Exposure to Emerging Markets – a “high EM exposure” basket
We believe that the list of 30 European stocks provided below constitutes a broadly
representative and attractive basket for investment in these countries. Our SG European
Exposure to Emerging Markets (SG EEEM) selection integrates the economic performance we
forecast on a country-by-country basis – notably for the BRIC countries, eastern Europe and
Africa – as well as the major driving forces in the various countries, i.e. consumption,
investments, imports/exports, and the role of commodities.
The 2009 SG EEEM basket
Consumers Capex / Industry Financials
Anheuser-Busch InBev ABB BBVA
Beiersdorf Atlas Copco Erste Bank
Carrefour BHP Billiton HSBC
Diageo Lafarge Prudential
Ericsson Holcim Santander
Inditex Saipem Standard Chartered
LVMH Schneider
Nestlé Siemens
Nokia Technip
Renault Veolia Environnement
Telenor Xstrata
Unilever
Volkswagen
Source: SG Cross Asset Research
The SG EEEM basket published in November 2007 has outperformed the FTSEurofirst 300
Index by 13.2% since that date, demonstrating the importance of emerging markets to
company and stock-price performance.
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