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As we begin to turn the page on the final chapter of 2009, it appears that several key investment debates have emerged on the global macro front. First and foremost is our belief that the “fat pitch” in the market is the similarity in valuation between high-growth and low-growth equities around the world. We detailed this issue last month (see “Changing of the Guard,” October, 2009), and remain steadfast in the camp that 2010 will be the year of growth investing, as portfolio managers and asset allocators will likely win through both superior growth and upward price-to-earnings valuation.
Inflation is another area of investment debate we have been working on, especially its impact on global capital markets. This topic is the focus of this month’s article. Undoubtedly, with the massive flood of central-bank liquidity flowing through the system, there is a lot of investor concern surrounding potential inflation surprises. That might as well be the case, but our analysis shows that inflation, after a cyclical bounce in the next few months, will likely remain low—potentially troublingly so—in 2010. In fact, we see uncomfortably low inflation as a much bigger risk to global equity markets in 2010 than either “traditional” inflationary pressures or the much ballyhooed double-dip earnings scenario.
Following are the key factors underpinning our thinking on inflation in 2010:..................................
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