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A Goldilocks Scenario in 2010...We expect China's economy to deliver stronger, more balanced growth with muted inflationary pressures in 2010, featuring 10% GDP growth and 2.5% CPI inflation. These baseline forecasts hinge on two key assumptions: a) that strong domestic demand in 2009 is largely sustained; and b) that recovery in G3 economies remains tepid.
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phase of China's super cycle in a globalized world economy:This comprises 'overheating in 2007', 'imported soft landing in 2008', and 'policy-induced decoupling' in 2009. Specifically, the 'imported soft landing' during most of 2008 was disrupted and derailed by the onset of the Great Recession in 4Q08. The subsequent aggressive and powerful policy responses by the authorities have managed to deliver a 'policy-induced decoupling' between China and other major economies since 2Q09.
Alternative scenarios in 2010 in the "fourseasons"framework: Adapting the "four seasons" framework that we employed in late 2007, we characterize the potential scenarios in 2010, depending on the mix of economic outlook in G3 and domestic policy stance. Autumn features the 'Goldilocks Scenario', Summer shows 'Overheating', Spring displays a 'Policy-induced Soft Landing', and Winter features a 'Policy-induced Double Dip'.
A post-crisis reflection on the Chinese economy: It would be imprudent to call for a cyclical Goldilocks scenario in an economy built on a growth model that is structurally flawed. In a post-crisis reflection on China's economy, we conclude that the popular concerns about such structural issues as 'over- investment' and 'under-consumption' in China are overdone and that China's growth model is generally sound.
Long-term challenges: The key challenge facing the Chinese economy in the long run is how to seize the window of opportunity of 'over-savings' to create quality wealth for the nation. To this end, we think China must get the structure of pricing and other incentives right.
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