2009年11月英国水务行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月英国水务行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：37
        【目录或简介】：

Potential downside not yet in the price: A key issue
for investors is whether enough downside has been
priced into the watcos to reflect potential equity issuance
and dividend cuts. We believe that investors should take
account of regulatory precedence – the tough 1999
review got tougher at final proposals, whereas the
benign 2004 review got easier. 2009 has so far been
tough, and we expect final proposals due November 26
to be similar. The watcos have underperformed the
market markedly since July 23 initial proposals, but 1999
tells us they could underperform considerably more yet.
We remain Underweight UU despite increasing our
EPS forecasts, to reflect a lower net interest charge.
UU has recently sold stakes in 2 assets for ~GBP130m
highlighting balance sheet risk. We now calculate that
UU needs to raise c.GBP500m (or ~15% of market cap)
of equity through divestments or a rights issue – but
either way the dividend continues to look at risk. Given
this dividend uncertainty we remain Underweight.
And the balance sheet remains in focus at SVT as
well: We also calculate that balance sheet repair is
needed at SVT given the tough stance from Ofwat in the
initial determination. The potential for a small equity
raising (we calculate 6% of market cap) as well as a
dividend cut could continue to lead to uncertainty post
the final determination from Ofwat, and we remain
Underweight until we gain more clarity.
A two-tier review? But we lower all our price targets:
Given our expectation of the tough outlook continuing for
UK water, we remove any premium we had in our price
targets for regulatory outperformance. However, we
differentiate the two stocks we see as having greater
regulatory risk (UU and SVT) from those that do not
(PNN and NWG) by setting our PT for UU and SVT
mid-way between our base and bear cases. Our top pick
in the space remains Pennon, but we would rather own
National Grid as a UK regulated name.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 水务行业 行业研究 uncertainty 研究报告 英国 行业 水务