Guilmoto, C. Z. (2012). Skewed sex ratios at birth and future marriage squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100. Demography, 49(1), 77-100.
Abstract 4
I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projection from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ration at birth. To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze condition will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structure.
话说这是一篇方法上很高深的文章，看看abstract就可以写得这么任性，所以只要有料，真是怎么撩都可以啊。 文章的主题也很好哦，是性别比例失调对将来婚姻率（nuptiality）的影响，想想也觉得特别想知道答案，但是你知道怎么去做预测吗？I examine the potential impact of ….on …..in China and in India 对了，还是对两个超级人口大国做的分析，这样的文章不发在最一流的期刊上还能怎么样。I use population projection from ….用了什么数据。 To counteract the …., I use a…procedure to ….based on …model. 看起来是一个方法上的改进，方法上做出改进，也是一种创造啊。I also examine two ….functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to …这是另外一个贡献。后面主要应该是讲结果了， longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that ….., 惊人的发现，待嫁新郎要比新娘多50%， 这个rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and ….., even among cohorts unaffected by ….. 后面进一步讲他们的预测，if the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by , the proportion of …..is expected to rise to ….in china by 2055 and ….. 印度更受到suffers from the additional impact of …..
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