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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月巴基斯坦银行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
Outlook for margins and asset quality brighter following 3Q09 results:
Key highlights from 3Q09 were margins, which held up well, given the stable
interest rate environment and NPL accretion, which slowed sharply,
signalling credit cycle has peaked.
■ Earnings revised up; we are significantly above consensus: We revise
up our aggregate NIM estimate by 49-76 bp over CY10-11, on the back of
moderate monetary easing in contrast to earlier estimates. Loan growth has
been weak, but we expect it to recover in CY10 which should support topline
growth. We cut our credit cost estimates for MCB, HBL and ABL,
following the encouraging trends. These changes have lead to a 6-16%
increase in aggregate earnings estimates over CY10-11, which is 14%
above consensus for CY10 now and 25% for CY11, and is likely due to
higher margins and lower credit cost estimates.
■ We upgrade MCB, UBL and ABL to an OUTPERFORM: The best way to
play our theme of stronger margins is through banks which have a shorter
loan re-pricing cycle as they stand to benefit from earnings upgrades. MCB
is a key beneficiary and we upgrade it to an OUTPERFORM from
Underperform with a revised target price of PRs252 (PRs187 earlier). We
also upgrade ABL to an OUTPERFORM from Neutral with a revised target
price of PRs74 (PRs52), as it too benefits from stronger interest rates and
has demonstrated strong control over asset quality. We upgrade UBL to an
OUTPERFORM from Neutral, with a revised target price of PRs73 (PRs 55
earlier) as it should be one of the key beneficiaries of the economic recovery.
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