[学以致用] 关于“10支箭与40盗贼”的经济学解答 [推广有奖]

81楼

karuro 发表于 2011-9-29 17:19:39

要用经济学的知识求解楼上的各位！！！莫装B 装B被雷劈

82楼

wuygsg 发表于 2011-9-29 19:07:33

当面对25人时，受威胁的人死亡的概率是1/4,而总体强盗死亡的概率是6/24=1/4，此时已然相等。好，就算这5人跑了。剩下20人。接下来受到威胁的人死亡的概率仍然是1/4，但是总体死亡的概率是5/19，已然小于1/4。这样子他们就不会跑。
为什么概率不这样子算：第1轮中，受威胁的强盗死亡的概率是1/4，而其他强盗死亡的概率不是9/35？这样更能体现自己的投入产出和其他的强盗相比。

83楼

596291997 发表于 2011-9-29 23:29:08

哈哈，楼主说的好！

84楼

596291997 发表于 2011-10-15 08:24:24

感谢楼主分析啊！！

85楼

johnnoel 发表于 2011-10-15 22:35:50

PUZZLE
You are a hero with a broken sword (Conan, Boromir, or your favorite Dungeons and Dragons character) being chased by a troop of bad guys (bandits, orcs, . . .). Fortunately you are on a horse and they are not. Unfortunately your horse is tired and they will eventually run you down. Fortunately you have a bow. Unfortunately you have only ten arrows. Fortunately, being a hero, you never miss. Unfortunately there are 40 bad guys. The bad guys are strung out behind you, as shown.

Problem: Use economics to get away.

Note: You cannot talk to the bad guys. They are willing to take a substantial chance of being killed in order to get you--after all, they know you are a hero and are still coming. They know approximately how many arrows you have.
这是原题。。。
翻译没写Note。。。