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雷达卡
《2010年高盛最新中国策略研究报告》
Thematic investing makes sense
The risk/reward of engaging in theme-based investing seems favorable in
2010 as the government is remolding China’s growth orientation and
sound investment opportunities usually emerge during a paradigm shift.
Big trends: Reforms and integration
We see the most compelling themes centering on what we believe are
two secular trends in China: (1) Deepening reforms and (2) integration.
Deepening reforms (Structural, financial, and fiscal support):
- Health care reform: The government will spend Rmb850bn in the next 3
years and deregulation could create long-term investment opportunities.
- Inland vs. coastal: A more targeted way to trade China’s robust
domestic demand against an anemic G3 growth recovery.
- Chinese autos: Affordability has increased significantly, yet auto
penetration in China remains very low in a global context.
- A-share issuance – US$40bn of new equity could hit the market in
2010 (1.5% of market cap). Brokers are likely to be the first to benefit.
- A-share listing: Offshore-listed stocks could list domestically in 1Q10
and they tend to perform well ahead of their A-share listing dates.
Integration:
- Shanghai World Expo: May attract 70mn visitors to the city and the
infrastructure work should bode well for future growth.
- Cross-strait development: Closer ties across the strait may benefit all concerned. Buy Chinese IT and Fujian-based firms。
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