Looking for Cattle and Hog Cycles through a Bayesian Window-寻找牛和猪通过贝叶斯窗口循环

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英文文献：Looking for Cattle and Hog Cycles through a Bayesian Window-寻找牛和猪通过贝叶斯窗口循环
英文文献作者：Dorfman, Jeffrey H.,Park, Myung D.
英文文献摘要：
The agricultural economics literature, both academic and trade, has discussed the assumed presence of cycles in livestock markets such as cattle and hogs for a very long time. Since Jarvis (1974), there has been considerable discussion over how these cycles impact optimal economic decision making. Subsequent studies such as Rucker, Burt, and LaFrance (1984), Hayes and Schmitz (1987), Foster and Burt (1992), Rosen, Murphy, and Scheinkman (1994), and Hamilton and Kastens (2000) have all investigated some aspect of how biological factors, economic events, or economic actions could be causes of and/or responses to cycles in hog and cattle inventories. There has also been debate, again both in the academic and trade literature, over the length of the cycle(s) present in hog and cattle stocks. To provide both academics and producers with accurate information on the number and periods of cycles that might be present in hog and cattle inventories, this paper provides a purely statistical view of the matter. Using over 140 years of annual data on cattle and hog inventory levels, we estimate Bayesian autoregressive, trend-stationary models on cattle inventories, hog inventories, and the growth rate of cattle inventories. We then use those models to find the posterior distributions of both the number of cycles present in each series and the period lengths of those cycles. We find multiple cycles present in all three series. Cattle inventory results show clear evidence in favor of 4.5, 6, and 11 year cycles with other cycles present but not as clearly identified. Hog inventory results identify five cycles with periods of approximately 4.5, 5.4, 6.8, 10 and 13 years. The data on the growth rate in cattle stocks has similar cycles to the series on the stock levels.

农业经济学文献，包括学术和贸易，已经讨论了假设存在的牲畜市场，如牛和猪的周期很长一段时间。自Jarvis(1974)以来，关于这些周期如何影响最优经济决策的讨论已经相当多。洛克等后续研究,伯特,LaFrance(1984),海耶斯和施密茨(1987),福斯特和伯特(1992),罗森,墨菲,和Scheinkman(1994),汉密尔顿和卡斯滕(2000)都调查了某些方面的生物因素,经济事件,或经济行为的可能原因和/或反应在猪和牛的库存周期。在学术和贸易文献中，也有关于猪和牛种群周期长度的争论。为了向学者和生产者提供关于猪和牛库存中可能存在的周期数量和周期的准确信息，本文提供了关于该问题的纯统计观点。利用超过140年的牛和猪库存水平的年度数据，我们估计了牛库存、猪库存和牛库存增长率的贝叶斯自回归、趋势平稳模型。然后，我们使用这些模型来找到每个系列中出现的周期数和周期长度的后验分布。我们发现在这三个系列中都有多个循环。家畜清查结果显示，有明确的证据支持4.5年、6年和11年的周期，其他周期也存在，但没有明确的确定。生猪清查结果确定了5个周期，周期约为4.5年、5.4年、6.8年、10年和13年。关于牛种群增长率的数据与关于牛种群水平的系列数据具有相似的周期。

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