20180724【充实计划】第777期

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读241小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读445小时      
挑战第一百四十八天   读12页书，完成当日目标

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读332小时

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读524小时

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读524小时

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约680小时。
学习和投资心得：
个股分析：三安光电： 一季度因为淡季叠加供应链博弈而使得库存暂时较高，实际的行业需求仍然旺盛，随着旺季到来，公司的库存顺利去化。 现阶段芯片价格稳定、全年预计10%左右的降幅。从供给端来看，台湾、日韩、欧美的大企业不断被替代，主流的芯片厂商将维持自身的扩产计划，包括三安、华灿、澳洋、乾照等大厂，整体供给增长处于稳中有升。3. LED 芯片行业的重资产 重资金的运行模式会迫使中小企业处于是否开工的犹豫状态。供给端大企业控制产能的能力会逐步增加。公司未来全球LED芯片市占率预计提升到现在的两倍。公司在LED芯片领域的地位无可动摇，全球市占率持续提升。 三大新业务：MiniLED &MicroLED、LED车灯、化合物半导体给公司带来新护城河，长期竞争优势显著。预计公司2018-2020年净利润分别为40亿、51亿、60亿，对应PE21/17/14倍，根据估值和公司基本面，我认为公司具备一定投资价值。医药企业：药价从根本上还是受制于供需，但由于药品是一种特殊商品，所以多了管制和政策扰动。我查了一下，此处所说的两种药为常用的廉价药，这种药涨价很正常的，别说制造成本，就是运输储藏和流通成本这几年增长很快，提价是市场行为，不涨价厂家集体亏损就会断药。前者从3毛1片涨到6毛，后者从6分涨到1毛2，涨了1倍看起吓人，其实对患者负担和医保的影响有限，个人理解这是刚性成本决定的，属于竞争激烈的普药，不属于恶性的垄断提价。回到药物降价主题，药物是有生命周期的，新药，到特色仿制药，再到竞争激烈的大宗仿制药，这条道路就是玩家从1家到很多家的过程，在规范市场与此同时药价也是不断走低毛利率不断压缩的过程，直到市场量价取得平衡。国内尽管市场化程度没有这么高，价格反应没有这么灵敏，但这个大规律是逃不掉的，降价是常态，如果你留意所谓高端仿制药的药价，也确实是在不断降价的，即使政府不强制降价，随着竞争加大也会降低的，直到取得市场平衡。国内暂时能做好仿制药的还不多，销售环境也让制药企业寻求高定价，但这个不是常态，一旦同质化无差异按通用名报销和处方，企业自己会往优质低价竞争上走，这也是我经常说仿制药只有3到5年好日子的原因。
股票估值：1.对于短期内相对比较稳定的公司，采用ROE/PB的模式来估值，如川投能源 近几年平均ROE约17%，目前pb1.7，长期持有毛估估年化约10%。2.对于成长型企业，一般采用pe估值，如我持有的华东医药，最近几年的利润增长都在20%以上，未来几年如基本面没有太大的变化 ，应该还能维持目前的利润增速，参考历史最低估值25PE，到此估值，我一般化就开始分段买入了，预期年化20%。3.对于周期性行业 如煤炭 钢铁，一般采用pb估值，低于一倍pb的企业龙头，可以少量配置，长期来说 周期性行业没有投资价值。为什么不采用所谓的现金流估值模式，因为要预期企业的长期增长率，很难！同时微小的企业增长率和贴现率差异，导致股价估值相差一两倍，相信大多数人受不了。

充实每一天 发表于 2018-7-24 06:22
【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】

|新充实挑战|    |公告【想成为牛人】|

今天主要阅读四篇文献。<br>
昨日阅读6小时，累计阅读19小时

昨日阅读0.5小时，累计阅读267小时

2018-07-24

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读344小时

1. 今天阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接:
How to write anything: A complete guide
Author: Laura Brown, PhD, has taught writing to just about everyone―from corporate executives to high school students. Her expertise encompasses instructor-led training, individual coaching, classroom teaching, and e-learning development. She has more than twenty-five years’ experience providing training and coaching in business writing, and she has also taught composition and literature at Columbia University. She lives in New York.

2. 今天阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录:
Finished Section 1: The writing process, and also the introduction of the book

A practical guide to everything you’ll ever need to write―at work, at school, and in your personal life.
With more than two hundred how-to entries and easy-to-use models organized into three comprehensive sections on work, school, and personal life, How to Write Anything covers a wide range of topics that make it an essential guide for the whole family. You want your boss to fund a special project. How can you write a persuasive email that will win his approval? It's time to apply to college. How can you write an essay that will stand out? The mother of one of your co-workers has died. What's the best way to express your condolences?
Grounded in a common-sense approach, friendly and supportive, How to Write Anything is Internet-savvy, with advice throughout about choosing the most appropriate medium for your message: e-mail or pen and paper. At once a how-to, a reference book, and a pioneering guide for writing in a changing world, this is the only writing resource you'll ever need.

3. 今天阅读的自我思考点评感想
(1) Writing process: purpose → reader → brainstorm → organize → draft → revision
You need go through all steps, but you do not have to follow the sequence.
(2) Reader: sometimes it is easy to lose yourself on some unsure or inappropriate understanding on reader.
(3) Purpose: need to be adjusted according to your readers.
(4) Brainstorm: outlines, it is not the time to constrain yourself and polishing.
(5) Organize: consider the defensive components of readers, brief and clear.
(6) Draft: keep going is important.
(7) Revision: real words you want to say, enlist help, not lose perspective on sth you’ve just written, prevent from “too close” problem

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读196小时