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英文文献：Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania-坦桑尼亚的气候变化无常和贫困脆弱性
英文文献作者：Ahmed, Syud Amer,Diffenbaugh, Noah S.,Hertel, Thomas W.,Ramankutty, Navin,Rios, Ana R.,Rowhani, Pedram
英文文献摘要：
Climate volatility will increase in the future, with agricultural productivity expected to become increasingly volatile as well. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to the climate, rising climate volatility can have severe implications for poverty. We develop and use an integrated framework to estimate the poverty vulnerabilities of different socio-economic strata in Tanzania under current and future climate. We find that households across various strata are similarly vulnerable to being impoverished when considered in terms of their stratum’s populations, with poverty vulnerability of all groups higher in the 21st Century than in the late 20th Century. When the contributions of the different strata to the national poverty changes are taken into account, the rural and urban households with diversified income sources are found to account for the largest poverty changes due to their large shares in initial total poverty.
未来气候的不稳定性将会增加，预计农业生产率也将变得越来越不稳定。对于粮食生产和价格对气候敏感的坦桑尼亚来说，气候变化的不断加剧可能对贫困产生严重影响。我们开发并使用一个综合框架来评估坦桑尼亚不同社会经济阶层在当前和未来气候下的贫困脆弱性。我们发现，各个阶层的家庭，如果以其所在阶层的人口来考虑，同样都很容易陷入贫困，所有群体在21世纪的贫困脆弱性都高于20世纪末。当考虑不同阶层对国家贫困变化的贡献时，收入来源多样化的城乡家庭因其在初始总贫困中所占比例较大，导致了最大的贫困变化。
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