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an overwhelming expectation that Asian asset values will continue to rise
in 2010. Our Asia ex-Japan PE estimate is just about at the mean for the past 20 years,
with earnings upgrades providing scope for this rally to run. Inside, Chris Wood
considers the long-term consequences of an Asian bubble; Russell Napier warns of
more government intervention on capital to stem the liquidity tide; Eric Fishwick looks
for stronger economies, with consumption spending picking up as government-led
investment eases; and Andy Rothman weighs up the risks on the China story. We also
look at the consequences of rising inflation and regional trade. Sector themes include
stronger consumption growth as incomes pass the elastic point of expenditure; wider
margins but capital-raising risk for banks; M&A in resources; corporate spending in
tech; and post-Copenhagen progress in cleantech. By market, look for those taking
advantage of China’s No.1 position; beneficiaries of India’s investment revival; a
cleanup of Korea’s messy group structures; our contrarian call on unloved Japan; and
developments in Asean, including Singapore’s impending casino openings. As the
Asian century unfolds, the lunar year ahead is a Metal Tiger. Our Feng Shui master
warns of added volatility but also hints at opportunity. Best wishes for 2010!
20091216 CLSA Asia Themes 2010.pdf
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